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A survey just released by Juniper Research (News - Alert) anticipates that revenue from consumer mobile apps will hit $52 billion by the end of 2016. In 2011, the market was just over $22 billion worldwide as more than 31 billion apps were downloaded in 2011 alone. Growth will be driven by increases in tablet sales as well as by increased adoption of smartphones.

Operator billing, introduced in the Android (News - Alert) Market and the Ovi Store, accounted for a significant increase in revenues. In-app billing means that post-download revenue has also surpassed pay-per-download revenue in many storefronts. While smartphones will generate the majority of mobile app revenue, analysts expect tablets to comprise 25 percent of the marketplace by 2016. Today, tablets take up a 7 percent market share.

Juniper’s report also argues that the app store is approaching its peak and highlights two main reasons for this argument. First, the mass consumer tablet market is driving the need for converged services.

Second, HTML5 will allow the development of browser-based applications based on open standard, which will promote a direct-to-consumer (D2C) model, particularly for large content providers who already generate a significant amount of web traffic. Closer integration between web-based apps and handsets will dramatically reduce the advantage currently held by native apps.

Small and medium-sized content providers will probably still opt for the app storefront because that venue will be the best way for them to generate awareness of their products.

“While we are likely to see some larger media publishers -- particularly those dependent on subscription revenues -- migrating to a direct-to-consumer model (D2C), this is by no means true for the majority of companies,” said Dr. Windsor Holden, the author of the report. “Most do not possess the scale of traffic to make D2C a viable option: in most cases, the storefront will continue to be the optimal discovery and distribution mechanism.”

The report also stresses the importance of emerging markets. Customizing offerings and pricing for emerging markets, along with operator billing, has proven to be a successful model for growth for companies like Nokia (News - Alert).

Nokia has seen dramatic increases in downloads from its Ovi Store, in part, thanks to its standardization of offerings over its S40 series of mobile phones. In some countries, such as Kenya, 50 percent of the population handles 20 percent of GDP via mobile phone.