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Sales Forecasting Without a Crystal Ball
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March 19, 2014

Sales Forecasting Without a Crystal Ball

By Tracey E. Schelmetic, TMCnet Contributor


We complain often about weather forecasts: predicted sunny days that turn out to be rainy, and shoveling a foot of what was supposed to be three inches of snow. Forecasting, of course, refers to the process of historical information and available present day data to guess how things might turn out in the future. Other types of forecasting such as call center traffic and sales can be just as dicey. And while meteorologists struggle to come up with better forecasting methods, so too do businesses.


Call center forecasting is critical: it predicts how much call volume will come into the contact center on a given day so managers can make a better-educated guess about how many agents are required. Sales forecasting is equally critical: it lets a business know what its income will be in the future so it can plan accordingly. But no one has a crystal ball, so sales organizations must do the best they can.

Some companies, of course, do sales forecasting better than others. They have the right skills and the right tools, plus the necessary data, to determine what the next sales cycle might look like. Matt Heinz, writing recently for Business2Community, notes that successful sales organizations have several traits in common.

What’s a good lead? What one sales person or manager defines as a “good lead” may be different from another person’s definition. The idea of a good lead will vary from industry to industry. Sales people or managers may be bringing over knowledge from other companies and industries, and therefore chasing the wrong leads. Ensure everyone is on the same page.

Understand the sales-cycle length. Heinz notes that the sales-cycle length from five years ago may have changed considerably in a different economic climate and it may be dragging your forecasts down.

“If market conditions are weak, sales-cycle length may have spread out,” wrote Heinz. “If budgets are tighter, an earlier decision maker may need permission from the CFO to take action now. These changes can wreak havoc on your sales forecast if you don’t anticipate, identify and adjust both behavior and expectations as a result.”

Reward accurate forecasting. Consider compensating sales people on not only what they sell, but how accurate their forecasts were, said Heniz.

“Very few sales organizations reward pipeline performance and behavior,” he wrote. “They compensate based on closed business, but not based on how close reps come to their forecasts. Create incentives for your reps to accurately forecast their expected sales. Foster an environment where honest changes to forecasts, even if the news isn’t good, is encouraged and rewarded.”

Update the forecast. Many organizations don’t bother updating their sales forecasts, and this can create unrealistic expectations. Companies may find the process of doing updates so cumbersome that they simply don’t bother. Ensure that your sales tool allows for easy, visible and shareable updates.

Review the sales process regularly. Are your in-house practices out of date? Do they rely on technologies that don’t make sense anymore? Are leads that were considered hot falling flat because they are not being approached in the right way? A regular review of the standard sales process and materials can give a boost to a sales organization and help them meet forecasts. 


Edited by Rory J. Thompson


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