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Manufacturing PMI® at 46.4%; July 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®New Orders, Production, Employment and Backlogs Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Decreasing; Exports and Imports Contracting TEMPE, Ariz., Aug. 1, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the ninth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The July Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 46 percent recorded in June. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates an eighth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.3 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the figure of 45.6 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 48.3 percent is a 1.6-percentage point increase compared to June's figure of 46.7 percent. The Prices Index registered 42.6 percent, up 0.8 percentage point compared to the June figure of 41.8 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.8 percent, 4.1 percentage points higher than the June reading of 38.7 percent. The Employment Index dropped further into contraction, registering 44.4 percent, down 3.7 percentage points from June's reading of 48.1 percent. "The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 46.1 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the 45.7 percent recorded in June. In the last eight months, the Supplier Deliveries Index has recorded its eight lowest readings since March 2009 (43.2 percent). (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) "The Inventories Index increased by 2.1 percentage points to 46.1 percent; the June reading was 44 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 46.2 percent is 1.1 percentage points lower than June's figure of 47.3 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 49.6 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the 49.3 percent reported in June." Fiore continues, "The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank again, but the uptick in the PMI® indicates a marginally slower rate of contraction. The July composite index reading reflects companies continuing to manage outputs down as order softness continues. Demand eased again, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting, though at a slower rate, (2) New Export Orders Index moving deeper into contraction and (3) Backlog of Orders Index improving compared to June but remaining at a low level. The Customers' Inventories Index reading indicated appropriate buyer/supplier tension, which is neutral to slightly positive for future production. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was negative, with a combined 2.1-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Amid mixed sentiment about when significant growth will return, panelists' companies reduced production and continued to manage head counts down, to a greater extent than in previous months. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index again indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index remained in contraction territory as panelists' companies continued to try to mitigate inventories exposure. The Prices Index remained in 'decreasing' territory, at a level generally not seen since early in the coronavirus pandemic (a reading of 40.8 percent in May 2020). Manufacturing lead times sentiment improved again but remain at elevated levels. "Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one — Petroleum & Coal Products — registered growth in July. "Demand remains weak but marginally better compared to June, production slowed due to lack of work, and suppliers continue to have capacity. There are signs of more employment reduction actions in the near term to better match production output. Ninety-two percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in July, up from 71 percent in June. However, the share of manufacturing GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 25 percent in July, compared to 44 percent in June, a clear positive," says Fiore. The two manufacturing industries that reported growth in July are: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Furniture & Related Products. The 16 industries reporting contraction in July, in the following order, are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Machinery. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes. COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in Price Commodities Down in Price Commodities in Short Supply Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. JULY 2023 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES Manufacturing PMI® A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the July Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy contracted for an eighth consecutive month after 30 straight months of expansion. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the July reading (46.4 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.8 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore. THE LAST 12 MONTHS
New Orders The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in July are: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Chemical Products. Twelve industries reported a decline in new orders in July, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
Production The three industries reporting growth in production during the month of July are: Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Paper Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in production in July — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Chemical Products. Seven industries reported no change in production in July compared to June.
Employment Of 18 manufacturing industries, three reported employment growth in July: Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Paper Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in employment in July, in the following order, are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. Seven industries reported no change in employment in July compared to June.
Supplier Deliveries† The three manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in July are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The eight industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in July as compared to June — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in July compared to June.
Inventories Of 18 manufacturing industries, the four reporting higher inventories in July are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting contracting inventories in July — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.
Customers' Inventories† The eight industries reporting customers' inventories as too high in July are, in order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Primary Metals. The six industries reporting customers' inventories as too low in July — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.
Prices† In July, two industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 14 industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in July — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.
Backlog of Orders† The three industries reporting growth in order backlogs in July are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting lower backlogs in July — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
New Export Orders† Three industries reported growth in new export orders in July: Wood Products; Primary Metals; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in July — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery.
Imports† The five industries reporting an increase in import volumes in July are: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. The seven industries that reported lower volumes of imports in July — listed in the following order — are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Six industries reported no change in imports in July compared to June.
†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments. Buying Policy
About This Report DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of July 2023. The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making. Data and Method of Presentation Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted). Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.7 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.7 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month. The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease. Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted. ISM ROB Content Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. 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About Institute for Supply Management® The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring August 2023 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Friday, September 1, 2023. *Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.
SOURCE Institute for Supply Management ![]() |