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Manufacturing PMI® at 50.9%; September 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®New Orders and Employment Contracting; Production and Backlogs Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slowing at a Slower Rate; Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing at a Slower Rate; Exports Contracting; Imports Growing TEMPE, Ariz., Oct. 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September, with the overall economy achieving a 28th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The September Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.9 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 52.8 percent recorded in August. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 28th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index returned to contraction territory at 47.1 percent, 4.2 percentage points lower than the 51.3 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 50.6 percent is a 0.2-percentage point increase compared to August's figure of 50.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 51.7 percent, down 0.8 percentage point compared to the August figure of 52.5 percent. This is the index's lowest reading since June 2020 (51.3 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.9 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than the August reading of 53 percent. After a single month of expansion, the Employment Index contracted at 48.7 percent, 5.5 percentage points lower than the 54.2 percent recorded in August. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 52.4 percent is 2.7 percentage points lower than the August figure of 55.1 percent. This is the index's lowest reading since before the coronavirus pandemic (52.2 percent in December 2019). The Inventories Index registered 55.5 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the August reading of 53.1 percent. The New Export Orders Index contracted at 47.8 percent, down 1.6 percentage points compared to August's figure of 49.4 percent. This is the index's lowest reading since June 2020, when it registered 47.6 percent. The Imports Index remained in expansion territory at 52.6 percent, 0.1 percentage point above the August reading of 52.5 percent." Fiore continues, "The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to expand, but at the lowest rate since the pandemic recovery began. Following four straight months of panelists' companies reporting softening new orders rates, the September index reading reflects companies adjusting to potential future lower demand. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index returning to contraction, (2) New Export Orders Index in contraction for a second consecutive month, (3) Customers' Inventories Index remaining at a low level but as close as it's been to an 'about right' reading since early in the pandemic and (4) Backlog of Orders Index approaching contraction. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) declined during the period, with a combined negative 5.3-percentage point impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index returned to contraction after one month of expansion, and the Production Index increased by 0.2 percentage point, staying in growth territory, but at a modest level. Many Business Survey Committee panelists' companies are now managing head counts through hiring freezes and attrition to lower levels, with medium- and long-term demand more uncertain. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — accommodated growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index reached an appropriate tension level, and the Inventories Index increased as panelists' companies continued to manage the total supply chain inventory. The Prices Index decreased for a sixth straight month and is not far from contraction territory, and the Imports Index modestly grew. "Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, four — Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — registered moderate-to-strong growth in September. "Manufacturing expanded for the 28th straight month. Panelists' companies slowed hiring activity; month-over-month supplier delivery performance was the best since December 2019; prices growth slowed notably (with the index at 60 percent or lower) for the third consecutive month; and lead times continue to ease for capital equipment and production materials. Markedly absent from panelists' comments was any large-scale mentioning of layoffs; this indicates companies are confident of near-term demand, so primary goals are managing medium-term head counts and supply chain inventories," says Fiore. Nine manufacturing industries reported growth in September, in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The seven industries reporting contraction in September compared to August, in the following order are: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes. COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in Price Commodities Down in Price Commodities in Short Supply Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. SEPTEMBER 2022 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES Manufacturing PMI® A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew in September for the 28th consecutive month following contraction in April and May 2020. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for September (50.9 percent) corresponds to a 0.8-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore. THE LAST 12 MONTHS
New Orders Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five reported growth in new orders in September: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. Eleven industries reported a decline in new orders in September, in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Production The eight industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production in September — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Employment Of 18 manufacturing industries, six reported employment growth in September, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in employment in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment.
Supplier Deliveries† Ten manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in September, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. Four industries reported faster supplier deliveries in September as compared to August: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.
Inventories Of 18 manufacturing industries, the 11 reporting higher inventories in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The four industries reporting contracting inventories in September are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Customers' Inventories† Three industries (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; and Furniture & Related Products) reported customers' inventories as too high in September. The 11 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Prices† In September, 10 of 18 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in the following order: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The seven industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Backlog of Orders† Eight industries reported growth in order backlogs in September, in the following order: Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Eight industries reported lower backlogs in September, in the following order: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
New Export Orders† Three industries reported growth in new export orders in September: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.
Imports† The eight industries reporting growth in imports in September — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Three industries reported lower volumes of imports in September: Wood Products; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Seven industries reported no change in imports in September.
†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments. Buying Policy
About This Report The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making. Data and Method of Presentation Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted). Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.7 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.7 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month. The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease. Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted. ISM ROB Content Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. 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About Institute for Supply Management® The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring October 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 1, 2022. *Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.
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