TMCnet News
PMI® at 52.8%; April Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®New Orders, Production, and Employment Growing Supplier Deliveries Slowing at Faster Rate; Backlog Growing Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers' Inventories Too Low Prices Unchanged; Exports and Imports Contracting TEMPE, Ariz., May 1, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April, and the overall economy grew for the 120th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The April PMI® registered 52.8 percent, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the March reading of 55.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.7 percent, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the March reading of 57.4 percent. The Production Index registered 52.3 percent, a 3.5-percentage point decrease compared to the March reading of 55.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.4 percent, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the March reading of 57.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.6 percent, a 0.4-percentage point increase from the March reading of 54.2 percent. The Inventories Index registered 52.9 percent, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the March reading of 51.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 50 percent, a 4.3-percentage point decrease from the March reading of 54.3 percent. "Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, but at the softest levels since the fourth quarter of 2016. Demand expansion continued, with the New Orders Index softening to the low 50s, the Customers' Inventories Index remaining at a 'too low' status, and the Backlog of Orders Index improving its prior month performance. Consumption (production and employment) continued to expand, but at lower levels, resulting in a combined decrease of 8.6 points. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — were higher this month, primarily due to inventory growth exceeding consumption, resulting in a combined 1.5-percentage point improvement in the Supplier Deliveries and Inventories Indexes. Imports contracted during the period. Overall, inputs reflect a more stable business environment, confirmed by the Prices Index at zero price growth, or unchanged. "Exports orders contracted for the first time since February 2016. The PMI® trade elements are in contraction territory. The PMI® has been inching down since November 2018. The manufacturing sector is expanding, but at recent historic lows," says Fiore. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 reported growth in April, in the following order: Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The five industries reporting contraction in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes. COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in Price Commodities Down in Price Commodities in Short Supply The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. APRIL 2019 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES PMI® A PMI® above 42.9 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the April PMI® indicates growth for the 120th consecutive month in the overall economy and the 32nd straight month of growth in the manufacturing sector. "The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for April (52.8 percent) corresponds to a 2.9-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore. THE LAST 12 MONTHS
New Orders Fourteen of 18 industries reported growth in new orders in April, in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The three industries reporting a decline in new orders in April are: Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment.
Production The 13 industries reporting growth in production during the month of April — listed in order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in production in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment.
Employment Nine of 18 manufacturing industries reported employment growth in April, in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in April are: Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment.
Supplier Deliveries The 10 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in April — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in April are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Primary Metals.
Inventories* The 10 industries reporting higher inventories in April — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in inventories in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Customers' Inventories* The four industries reporting customers' inventories as too high during the month of April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; and Fabricated Metal Products. The 11 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during April — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment.
Prices* Five of the 18 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials in April: Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in prices for raw materials in April — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Backlog of Orders* The 13 industries reporting growth in order backlogs in April — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs during April are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment.
New Export Orders* The six industries reporting growth in new export orders in April — listed in order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products. Seven industries reported no change in new export orders in April as compared to March.
Imports* The seven industries reporting growth in imports during the month of April — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting a decrease in imports in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Six industries reported no change in imports in April as compared to March.
*The Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments. Buying Policy
About This Report The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making. Data and Method of Presentation Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted), and Inventories. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI® above 42.9 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.9 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.9 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month. The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease. Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern. ISM ROB Content Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit. You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 W. Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing [email protected]. Subject: Content Request. ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc. About Institute for Supply Management® The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring May 2019 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, June 3, 2019. *Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.
View original content:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pmi-at-52-8-april-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-300841270.html SOURCE Institute for Supply Management |