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The Financial Oversight Board in Charge of Puerto Rico's Recovery Continues to Create Unrealistic Fiscal Plans Based on Flawed Data
[October 11, 2018]

The Financial Oversight Board in Charge of Puerto Rico's Recovery Continues to Create Unrealistic Fiscal Plans Based on Flawed Data

Puerto Rico needs a realistic Fiscal Plan that guides it toward a more sustainable economic future. Instead, the Oversight Board created by Congress to be in charge of Puerto Rico's recovery has developed its current Fiscal Plan based on unreliable data and assumptions, according to an analysis published on, a project of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The analysis of the plan's flawed federal Medicaid funding projections is summarized below and available in detail at

Federal Medicaid funding has a critical role in providing affordable health care to the people of Puerto Rico, especially as the island works toward a sustainable recovery, and Congress has a record of providing support for the program, averaging 55% of Puerto Rico's total Medicaid spending over the past 11 years. Yet, the Oversight Board's current Fiscal Plan assumes that federal support of the island's Medicaid program will drop precipitously.

Why Does the Oversight Board Assume Congress Will Drastically Reduce Puerto Rico's Medicaid Funding?

  • The Oversight Board's current Fiscal Plan illogically assumes that the federal share of Puerto Rico's Medicaid funding will plunge from 83% in fiscal year 2019 to 10% in fiscal years 2021-2023.
  • What's more, the Oversight Board counterintuitively accepted the implausible assumption that as Puerto Rico's population declines by almost 6% from fiscal 2018 to 2023Medicaid spending will rise 35%.

Flawed and inadequately disclosed Fiscal Plan assumptions stand in the way of Puerto Rico's ability to achieve fiscal responsibility and regain capital market access - essential steps toward a sustainable recovery and brighter future for Puerto Rico's residents.

For More Information

See a detailed analysis of the financial impact of Fiscal Plan Medicaid projections at

For a deeper understanding of the financial issues involved in Puerto Rico's recovery, including history, news and informed opinion, visit

The Revitalize Puerto Rico effort is funded by Assured Guaranty. Assured Guaranty helps provide funding for public projects such as the construction of hospitals, schools, roads and bridges. We have done this in Puerto Rico and in cities and communities across America. Our goals are to help municipal governments gain access to funding for essential public projects at more affordable rates and to protect investors in the bonds we insure from defaults on principal or interest payments. Once we insure a bond, we are committed to make up any shortfalls in payments by the issuer until the bond matures, which means we have a long-term investment in the health of the Puerto Rico economy.

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