[September 22, 2020]

KBRA Releases Research - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Spotlight on U.S. Trade-Recession Trumps Conflict

Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) releases research on recent U.S. trade and prospects going forward. In dissecting recent data releases, KBRA found that recession, rather than trade conflict or deglobalization, appears to be the defining contributor to recent (and perhaps future) U.S. trade dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• Net exports dampen (somewhat) the steep U.S. downturn in 1H 2020, with future developments dependent on economic recovery.
• Recession has driven trade dynamics more than residual trade conflict.
• Lingering effects of the pandemic including onshoring of production introduce uncertainties regarding future trade trends.
• Heightened trade conflict is unlikely to be a high near-term priority, regardless of the U.S. election, in the event that considerable economic weaknesses persist.
• Mexico has increased trade with the U.S. and this trend is likely to continue post-pandemic.

Click here to view the report.

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KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. In addition, KBRA is designated as a designated rating organization by the Ontario Securities Commission for issuers of asset-backed securities to file a short form prospectus or shelf prospectus. KBRA is also recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider and is a certified Credit Rating Agency (CRA) with the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe is registered with ESMA as a CRA. Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe is located at 6-8 College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200922005669/en/

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