The Year of the Rat could bode well for VoIP.

 

2008 is the Year of the Rat in the Chinese Zodiac. Far from being the sewage-rummaging rodent westerners typically associate with the word rat, in Chinese culture it’s a respected creature thought to bring protection and material prosperity. People born under the sign of the rat are considered to be energetic, versatile, and able to overcome obstacles.

 

Come to think of it, versatility and the ability to overcome obstacles are qualities VoIP may indeed share with the Rat. What other rat-like qualities and behavior will VoIP be demonstrating in 2008? Here’s a take on what’s in the cards.

 

While VoIP continues to disrupt the land line telephony industry, mobile VoIP is poised to do the same in the mobile sector. In fact, research firm Disruptive Analysis predicts that the number of VoIP over 3G users will top 250 million by the end of 2012. The iPhone (News - Alert) phenomenon will contribute to this growth when Apple launches its much requested 3G handset towards the end of the year.

 

In 2008, the spotlight will shine on VoIP going mobile thanks to the introduction of new applications. We’ll see a slew of new “feature”-based mobile VoIP companies in the market. Center ring will be Google’s Android, with its new open source mobile platform, and the application bonanza the company hopes to stir up. As part of its Android announcement in November, Google issued a challenge to developers to create applications for the operating system. The ones showcased by Google themselves looked remarkably “Applesque.” Case in point: the iPhone map feature. But we’ll see life move beyond all things geographical.

 

As well as bidding on its own mobile airwave, Google will also partner with other select wireless carriers — T-Mobile (News - Alert) springs to mind — to bring the Google open platform to market. After all, they don’t really want to win the bidding war, do they?!

 

According to the Internet rumor mill, eBay is quietly shopping Skype. Has Skype been little more than a distraction to eBay’s core auction business? While some may argue that Internet communications is an important capability for online auctions, it’s not the essential value proposition that PayPal represents. The anticipated synergy between Skype and eBay simply failed to materialize.

 

The writing is on the wall. The company has struggled this past year to monetize anything in the Skype world and its creator and leader has moved on to new pastures. So if the reports are true, potential buyers could be lining up for a shot at Skype. Yahoo or Microsoft would be strong contenders. Or Google maybe? I say no to Google. They’ve hung their hat elsewhere in the mobile world.

 

The Year of the Rat could be auspicious for Vonage if it helps bring prosperity and the ability to adapt to any situation to survive. Hopefully, the company will be spared any more rounds of legal pasting from Verizon (News - Alert).

 

As for the rest of the market, VoIP will continue its push into the home with the big cable guys bulldozing over all in their path. This will spell a culling season for any of the lingering small VoIP pretenders. The big telcos, AT&T et al, will carry on tiptoeing through the VoIP landscape and cringing at their eroding margins. I can’t see them really getting their game together in the small business market to any extent next year.

 

Those hungry cable guys will also be eyeing the small business market and salivating as they try and broaden their reach. However, they’ll find the SME market to be a different can of worms compared to the consumer market, with greater complexity in getting the VoIP technology up and running and a higher degree of hand-holding needed.

 

That’s my take on VoIP industry predictions for 2008. Long live the Rat!