In its recent report, Asia/Pacific (Excluding Japan) Telecommunications 2008 Top 10 Predictions, IDC (News - Alert) has predicted that 2008 will be a year in which telco providers continue to experiment with various business models in order to find an optimal balance between market protection and strategic growth.

 

Sandra Ng, group vice president for IDC’s Asia/Pacific Communications, Peripherals, Services and ETAS research division said in the report that, during the past few years, the preference of the new media sector and corporate users for on-premises solutions have been disruptive to the APEJ telecom industry.

 

She explained that in order to stay on top of the market, telcos have been experimenting with various go-to-market offerings, partnerships, solution developments, and network investments models. Unfortunately, not all experiments generate immediate financial benefits and thus telcos are under pressure to find a balance between continual innovation and ensuring positive financial returns in the immediate term from 'cash cow' offerings.

 

In 2007, the Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) telecom services market was worth more than $215 billion. Last year, the networking equipment market grew 13 percent to $6.6 billion in terms of infrastructure. The carrier segment remained a stable market at $32 billion in 2007. The report predicts that in 2008, growth from broadband, IP-based and 3G services, and demand for on-premise solutions will further propel the services and infrastructure markets.

 

The following list covers IDC’s 10 telecom predictions in 2008. These predictions represent major trends with either the most significant financial impact or long-term market impact across the Asia/Pacific region.

 

 

When 802.11n is ratified, enterprise adoption of WLAN will become a reality in 2008. The 802.11n standard eliminates hurdles that have earlier impeded enterprise-wide adoption of WLAN and is expected to pave the way for larger scale deployment. The 802.11n also makes the seamless delivery of unified mobile applications a reality. Thanks to its technological strengths, IDC expects greater usage of multi-media applications such as video conferencing, IPTV (News - Alert), video-on-demand, multi-room DVR and voice over WLAN.

 

 

IDC pointed out that data streaming’s performance on GPRS and 3G networks has been too slow and too inefficient. The HSDPA can deliver speeds of 3.6Mbps or greater, and will breathe new life into music and video streaming. In addition, it brings mobile TV into reality. Streaming services may enhance operators’ revenues if tariff plans are simple and content is appealing.

 

 

Those GSM operators who don’t have a 3G license and are searching to roll out next generation wireless data services may migrate their Mobile Switching Center, base-station controllers, customer care and billing systems, SMS (Short Messaging Service) and other value-added voice services to an all-IP core. IDC expects more APEJ operators to migrate to an IP core in 2008 because an all-IP mobile core network gives operators flexibility in scaling up to new bandwidth-hungry applications while preparing for a future 4G-network design at the same time.

 

 

Mobile operators will find new opportunities thanks to the introduction of HSDPA, combined with the popularity of blogging, video sharing and social networking (such as YouTube (News - Alert) and Facebook) in the fixed world. IDC says that mobile versions of various Web 2.0 applications will accustom subscribers to use their mobile phones for communications and social networking purposes. Operators will gain from greater data usage since users will become more comfortable and more compelled to use their phone to access the Internet. The report indicates that most Asian carriers recognize that creative content development could lead to enhanced revenue. IDC expects operators to be very active in developing and pushing mobile 2.0 applications in 2008.

 

 

It is no secret that a highly customized service brings higher premium. As such, the telecommunications industry has been placing great emphasis on delivering tailored solutions for various industry verticals. Consumer habits, growing affluence, longer life expectancy, and favorable macro-economic environments are just some factors that have led IDC to believe that over the next few years, gaming, healthcare, hospitality, off-shoring and retail sectors in APEJ will hold great potential for telcos.

 

 

Environmental issues now influence how people vote, and have also become a growing business concern in APEJ. There are several factors that are driving IT managers to adopt "green IT" such as cost savings, genuine concern for the environment, and the need to demonstrate corporate social responsibility. IDC predicts that server and datacenter consolidation will be one of the immediate focus points of the "greening" of IT. Video conferencing will also become increasingly popular as it resonates well with "green IT". However, we are only at the very beginning of this movement. Enterprises will now increase pressure on their partners and suppliers to provide “green” solutions, for the purposes of meeting environmental compliance regulations, and from genuine concern for the environment. The research firm expects more green initiatives in 2008 and beyond.

 

 

IDC says that Fixed-line penetration remains low in a number of largely populated markets such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Although the GSM mobile services have been very successful, there remains significant pent-up demand for WLL services since several people find the prices of GSM service too high. IDC expects WLL to become more popular in certain markets as operators use the technology to offer unlimited voice calls that resemble services offered by landlines/residential phones.

 

 

2008 is set to be a big year for IP-surveillance. Businesses will be receptive to IP surveillance due to increased security concerns, as well as IP surveillance's cost effectiveness. IDC believes that this emerging technology will become popular in the gaming, financial services and retail industries, as physical security is a primary concern to these vertical industries.

 

 

The gap between personal and business communication has narrowed. Thus, there is an emerging focus on web 2.0 and unified communications (UC) solutions for the enterprise. In 2008, enterprises will move beyond UC and start embracing Web 2.0 with a focus on collaboration, customer analytics and targeted smart search applications. IDC believes that the factors driving the adoption of UC and Web 2.0 applications at the workplace are the need for constant presence, information and more effective communication and collaborative workflows. 2008 will be the year where these services will truly gain traction in the enterprise space.

 

 

According to IDC, the APEJ region comprises markets that have moderate to high broadband household penetration and those that have large swaths of the households unconnected to the Internet or even Plain Old Telephone Services (POTS). WiMAX (News - Alert) and HSDPA will cooperate and compete for market share in the fixed, portable and mobile broadband addressable space. HSPDA will be the winner for mobile broadband at 3G carriers, and Mobile WiMAX for mobile broadband at 2G carriers and in fixed service mode for fixed-line carriers.