1.
|
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
|
1.1
|
Purpose and scope of this report
|
1.2.
|
Megatrends affected by and affecting EV markets
|
1.3.
|
Social megatrends red. Technological megatrends blue
|
1.4.
|
The end game is not as popularly portrayed
|
1.5.
|
Electrification roadmap
|
1.6.
|
Who is being disrupted?
|
1.7.
|
Upcoming restrictions for commercial vehicles
|
1.8.
|
Specialty vehicles
|
1.9.
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More carrot, more stick
|
1.10.
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Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics
|
1.11.
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Benefits from truck and van electrification
|
1.12.
|
Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics
|
1.13.
|
Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck?
|
1.14.
|
Need for a systems approach
|
1.15.
|
Limited 48V opportunity with delivery trucks/ vans
|
|
|
2.
|
INTRODUCTION
|
2.1.
|
Urban pollution
|
2.2.
|
Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
|
2.3.
|
CO2 emission limits enacted worldwide to 2025
|
2.4.
|
Why go electric? Drivers of truck electrification
|
2.5.
|
GHG emissions from transport, EU-28, 2015
|
2.6.
|
Final energy consumption in the EU-28 (mtoe), 2015
|
2.7.
|
CO2 emission from road transport, EU-28, 2015
|
2.8.
|
CO2 emission from road transport
|
2.9.
|
Projected global freight activity and GHG emissions from 2015 to 2050
|
2.10.
|
The state of the art in alternative drivetrains
|
2.11.
|
Market for urban goods transport grows rapidly
|
2.12.
|
Market for e-commercially transported goods
|
2.13.
|
Share of US grocery market
|
2.14.
|
The worldwide freight transport industry
|
2.15.
|
Euro 6 emissions standard adoption around the world
|
2.16.
|
Fuel emissions policies around the world
|
2.17.
|
Electric trucks and vans cut pollution faster than cars
|
2.18.
|
EU initiatives to offset additional powertrain weight
|
2.19.
|
Fuel saving technology areas
|
2.20.
|
The easy way out of emissions control: aerodynamics
|
2.21.
|
Aerodynamics: Shell Airflow Starship
|
2.22.
|
Other avenues for fuel efficiency: lightweighting
|
2.23.
|
Is retrofitting an economically viable option?
|
2.24.
|
Electric powertrain options for trucks
|
2.25.
|
Start-stop electrification and other fuel efficiency measures
|
2.26.
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Maxwell's Ultracapacitor-Based Engine Start Module
|
|
|
3.
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CLASSIFICATIONS OF TRUCKS AND VANS
|
3.1.
|
The worldwide freight transport industry
|
3.2.
|
Value chain rewritten
|
3.3.
|
Different segments of goods transportation by land
|
3.4.
|
Types of popular on-road truck
|
3.5.
|
Existing truck classifications
|
|
|
4.
|
TRUCKS AND VANS IN THE EU
|
4.1.
|
The worldwide freight transport industry - EU
|
4.2.
|
Pollutant emissions have been slashed to near-zero levels
|
4.3.
|
Main truck brands in Europe
|
4.4.
|
Truck sales in EU-28 by size and brand, 2016
|
4.5.
|
Vans in Europe
|
4.6.
|
Vans in EU-28 - market share by brand, fuel and sales, 2016
|
4.7.
|
Best-selling vans in EU-28, 2016
|
4.8.
|
CO2 emissions for vans in Europe by brand, 2009-2016
|
4.9.
|
CO2 emissions for vans in Europe by country, 2016
|
|
|
5.
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TRUCKS AND VANS IN THE US
|
5.1.
|
The worldwide freight transport industry - USA
|
5.2.
|
US truck population by vehicle type
|
5.3
|
HDV market share in the US
|
5.4.
|
Average Daily Truck Traffic on the National Highway System, 2012
|
5.5.
|
Industry issues according to US truckers
|
5.6.
|
Average truck age in the US
|
5.7.
|
Alternative fuel choices for trucks in the US
|
5.8.
|
The cost of trucking in the United States
|
5.9.
|
Average U.S. On-Highway Diesel Prices, 2008 - 2016
|
5.10.
|
Repair & maintenance, another running cost for US truckers
|
5.11.
|
Nobody wants to be a truck driver in the US
|
5.12.
|
The solution: electric, autonomous trucks?
|
|
|
6.
|
TRUCKS AND VANS IN JAPAN
|
6.1.
|
Truck transport business in Japan
|
6.2.
|
The number of truck carriers has plateaued
|
6.3.
|
CO2 emissions from trucks
|
6.4.
|
Main truck brands in Japan
|
6.5.
|
Historic truck sales in Japan
|
6.6.
|
Medium and heavy duty truck sales in Japan
|
6.7.
|
Large and medium-sized trucks market share
|
|
|
7.
|
TRUCKS AND VANS IN CHINA
|
7.1.
|
The worldwide freight transport industry - China
|
7.2.
|
HDV registrations in China by province, by type, and brand
|
7.3.
|
Truck engine supplier relationships in China
|
7.4.
|
Chinese truck joint ventures
|
7.5.
|
China's truck market segments
|
7.6.
|
China exports its trucks too
|
7.7.
|
Buses down in China, trucks up
|
7.8.
|
China's first emissions testing standard for heavy-duty vehicles
|
7.9.
|
Argonne National Labs
|
|
|
8.
|
TRUCKS AND VANS IN THE ROW
|
8.1.
|
The worldwide freight transport industry - Russia
|
8.2.
|
Other markets - Mexico
|
8.3.
|
A visual history of commercial hybrid trucks
|
|
|
9.
|
LIGHT DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLES
|
9.1.
|
An industry changing from the ground up
|
9.2.
|
Last Mile vehicle needs and challenges
|
9.3.
|
Small vehicles that move the local economy
|
9.4.
|
Retrofitting of old delivery vans
|
9.5.
|
Harrod's electric van
|
9.6.
|
Functions required
|
9.7.
|
UPS to transform diesel trucks into electric vehicles
|
9.8.
|
Deutsche Post DHL runs 5000 StreetScooters
|
9.9.
|
Nissan e-NV200
|
9.10.
|
StreetScooter
|
9.11.
|
Renault Kangoo Z.E.
|
9.12.
|
Renault Master Z.E.
|
9.13.
|
Citröen Berlingo Electric / Peugeot Partner Electric
|
9.14.
|
LDV/Saic Maxus EV80
|
9.15.
|
Iveco Daily Electric
|
9.16.
|
Mercedes Benz eVito
|
9.17.
|
Mercedes Benz eSprinter
|
9.18.
|
Daimler Vision Van
|
9.19.
|
Volkswagen e-Crafter
|
9.20.
|
Ford Transit Custom PHEV
|
9.21.
|
LEVC taxi-based PHEV van
|
9.22.
|
Dongfeng Motor Corporation
|
9.23.
|
Mitsubishi Minicab MiEV
|
9.24.
|
Bakery Vehicle 1
|
9.25.
|
Bucher
|
9.26.
|
TU Munich aCar
|
9.27.
|
Tropos Motors ABLE
|
9.28.
|
Polaris GEM eL XD
|
9.29.
|
IFEVS
|
|
|
10.
|
MEDIUM DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLES
|
10.1.
|
A category that is difficult to define
|
10.2.
|
Fuso eCanter
|
10.3.
|
Wrightspeed
|
10.4.
|
Orange EV
|
10.5.
|
Iveco
|
10.6.
|
Dual Energy
|
10.7.
|
Iveco Dual Energy
|
10.8.
|
Alkane and evLaboratory MoU
|
10.9.
|
Geely and Via Motors to make electric truck
|
10.10.
|
Royal Mail with all-electric vans
|
10.11.
|
Zero Truck
|
10.12.
|
Chanje vans
|
10.13.
|
Efficient Drivetrains Inc
|
10.14.
|
Dongfeng Motor Corporation
|
10.15.
|
List of Commercial Medium Duty Vehicles
|
10.16.
|
Medium Duty Electric Vehicle demonstration projects
|
|
|
11.
|
HEAVY DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLES
|
11.1.
|
Trucks
|
11.2.
|
EDF: electric trucks to disrupt highway transport
|
11.3.
|
MAN e-mobility roadmap
|
11.4.
|
Why Daimler is pushing for electric trucks
|
11.5.
|
VW and Navistar to use joint e-drivetrain for trucks
|
11.6.
|
Cummins announces acquisition of Brammo
|
11.7.
|
Cummins Acquires Johnson Matthey's Automotive Battery Systems Business
|
11.8.
|
Scania and Northvolt partnership
|
11.9.
|
Hino Motors
|
11.10.
|
BMW and SCHERM
|
11.11.
|
Tesla Semi
|
11.12.
|
Tesla's New Semi Already Has Some Rivals
|
11.13.
|
Daimler eActros
|
11.14.
|
Daimler
|
11.15.
|
Timeline of Daimler's electric truck models
|
11.16.
|
Hyundai rushes to electrify commercial vehicles
|
11.17.
|
Mack Trucks
|
11.18.
|
BYD electric truck assembly plant in Ontario, Canada
|
11.19.
|
Motiv Power Systems
|
11.20.
|
Efficient Drivetrains Inc
|
11.21.
|
Atlas Copco adds to haulage truck range
|
11.22.
|
VDL will present its Electric Truck early in 2019
|
11.23.
|
E-Force One
|
11.24.
|
Renault and Groupe Delanchy
|
11.25.
|
eMoss
|
11.26.
|
eMoss - pure EV trucks
|
11.27.
|
eMoss - electric trucks with range extender
|
11.28.
|
eTruck from eMoss and Tampere University
|
11.29.
|
Shannxi Automotive PHEV Class 8 cement mixer truck
|
11.30.
|
Hybrid upfit system for trucks
|
11.31.
|
BYD Delivers First All-Electric Garbage Truck To Palo Alto
|
11.32.
|
First electric truck by VDL
|
11.33.
|
Magna
|
11.34.
|
Thor Trucks
|
11.35.
|
Renault to sell electric trucks in 2019
|
11.36.
|
Volvo to reveal electric semi truck for 2019
|
11.37.
|
Volvo with Samsung for full-electric trucks
|
11.38.
|
List of commercial Heavy Duty Vehicles
|
11.39.
|
Heavy Duty Electric Vehicle demonstration projects
|
11.40.
|
Some electric trucks compared
|
|
|
12.
|
HYBRID VS. PURE ELECTRIC TRUCKS AND VANS
|
12.1.
|
Powertrain focus
|
12.2.
|
Motor-generator REM duty cycle, type, function
|
12.3.
|
A matter of use cases
|
12.4.
|
Heavy duty powertrains by application
|
12.5.
|
ICE vs. parallel hybrid drivetrain
|
12.6.
|
Eaton Hybrid Electric System Layout
|
12.7.
|
Anatomy of a hybrid electric van
|
12.8.
|
Waste heat recovery (WHR) in a hybrid powertrain
|
12.9.
|
CO2eq emissions in different heavy duty vehicles
|
12.10.
|
Hybrid upfit system for trucks
|
12.11.
|
TEVA / JAC
|
12.12.
|
Mahle Range Extender
|
12.13.
|
The more battery capacity the better, right?
|
12.14.
|
Ricardo's view of long haul options
|
|
|
13.
|
FUEL CELLS FOR TRUCKS AND VANS
|
13.1.
|
Fuel cell vehicles will never be mainstream
|
13.2.
|
Fuel cells are dead. Long live fuel cells!
|
13.3.
|
The need for long range beyond range extenders
|
13.4.
|
What fuel cell vans used to look like
|
13.5.
|
What fuel cell vans look like today
|
13.6.
|
Fuel cell trucks in China
|
13.7.
|
Fuel cells and trucks today
|
13.8.
|
Primary problems between battery and fuel cell on-road vehicles
|
13.9.
|
Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - driving range
|
13.10.
|
Are batteries viable for long-haul?
|
13.11.
|
Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - cost
|
13.12.
|
Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - efficiency
|
13.13.
|
Guide to Hydrogen Truck Refuelling
|
13.14.
|
Hydrogen refuelling station
|
13.15.
|
Developing Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure
|
13.16.
|
Alternative fuels generation - 2030 vs. 2050
|
13.17.
|
Fuel cell-battery hybrid systems
|
13.18.
|
Anheuser-Busch Makes Record Order of 800 Nikola Trucks
|
13.19.
|
Ballard and Kenworth
|
13.20.
|
Ballard Fuel Cell Module to Power Hybrid UPS Delivery Van Trial Program in California
|
13.21.
|
Ballard and Hyster-Yale
|
13.22.
|
ULEM Co
|
13.23.
|
How bio-waste generates hydrogen
|
13.24.
|
Nikola and Bosch partnership - hydrogen fuel cell
|
13.25.
|
DHL/Streetscooter also trials fuel cell delivery vans
|
13.26.
|
Keyou
|
13.27.
|
Fuel Cell vehicle demonstration projects
|
|
|
14.
|
THE ECONOMICS OF GOODS DELIVERY
|
14.1.
|
Top challenges for commercial vehicles
|
14.2.
|
Differences between e-car and e-truck
|
14.3.
|
How many km do trucks travel in a year and in a day
|
14.4.
|
Testing and Demonstration of PHEV Parcel Delivery Vehicles
|
14.5.
|
TCO of a diesel truck vs. an all-electric truck
|
14.6.
|
Financial benefits for the freight industry
|
14.7.
|
Potential CO2eq reduction potential of HEV trucks
|
14.8.
|
Battery makers in China see tough times
|
14.9.
|
What does this imply for niche EV markets?
|
14.10.
|
Commercial EVs help the others cross the Devil's Bridge
|
14.11.
|
When will cost parity be reached?
|
14.12.
|
Tesla sued for $2B by Nikola over alleged patent infringement
|
14.13.
|
Last Mile Delivery - DHL
|
14.14.
|
Last Mile Delivery - Amazon
|
14.15.
|
The Tesla Semi Will Eclipse Diesel
|
14.16.
|
Making Sense Out of Tesla's Semi Truck Economics
|
14.17.
|
U.K. Truckers: Tesla Semi Performance not Important
|
14.18.
|
Tesla Truck gets DHL order as shippers test Semi
|
14.19.
|
Ryder To Order Tesla's Semi
|
14.20.
|
Barriers to fuel-saving technologies
|
14.21.
|
Trucks are only convenient below 400 km range
|
14.22.
|
Cost of electricity in California by time of day ($/kWh)
|
14.23.
|
Strategies for reducing the cost of electricity for xEVs
|
14.24.
|
The total cost of ownership of electric trucks
|
14.25.
|
The economics of battery swapping for electric trucks
|
14.26.
|
The economics of fuel cells in trucks
|
14.27.
|
The economics of e-roads and catenaries
|
14.28.
|
Cost projections in selected countries for various powertrains
|
14.29.
|
Economic viability of several zero-emission technologies
|
14.30.
|
E-truck adoption rate forecasts in California
|
14.31.
|
Powertrain cost comparison - China
|
14.32.
|
Powertrain cost comparison - Europe
|
14.33.
|
Powertrain cost comparison - United States
|
14.34.
|
Advantages and disadvantages of electric vs. fuel cell trucks
|
|
|
15.
|
SOME OF THE KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
|
15.1.
|
The key enabling technologies are changing
|
15.2.
|
Energy storage
|
15.3.
|
Forecasts of energy density by type 2018-2028
|
15.4.
|
Rapid scale-up with rapid change of product spells trouble
|
15.5.
|
Safety
|
15.6.
|
EVs catching fire get media attention, but ICEs are not immune to that either
|
15.7.
|
Battery choices at MAN Truck & Bus
|
15.8.
|
Bosch and batteries for trucks
|
15.9.
|
GVI - battery packs for delivery vans
|
15.10.
|
EnerDel - battery packs for trucks
|
15.11.
|
Supercapacitors in heavy trucks
|
15.12.
|
Skeleton Tech: supercap opportunity
|
15.13.
|
Iveco and Supercaps - a cost perspective
|
15.14.
|
Iveco and Supercaps - a history of tests
|
15.15.
|
Iveco and high power- LTO, NCM, or Supercaps?
|
15.16.
|
Motor technology choices
|
15.17.
|
Technology preference by type of vehicle
|
15.18.
|
REM technologies performance in powertrains: the show so far
|
15.19.
|
Trend to high voltage, high speed motors
|
15.20.
|
Oerlikon SR motor in large hybrids
|
15.21.
|
Planned PM synchronous heavy duty drive UQM, Eaton,Pi Innovo
|
15.22.
|
Electric Wheel Hub Drives
|
15.23.
|
Dana in-axle motor
|
15.24.
|
Move to integration - Volkswagen's approach
|
15.25.
|
Examples of trend to product integration
|
15.26.
|
Example of multiple REM per vehicle
|
15.27.
|
Flybrid KERS used by Wrightbus UK on hybrid buses
|
15.28.
|
LeTourneau switched reluctance
|
15.29.
|
Continental
|
15.30.
|
BPW axles
|
15.31.
|
TM4
|
15.32.
|
Cool Tech (formerly HPEV Inc.)
|
15.33.
|
Reinventing wind turbines for use on boats, ships, aircraft, land vehicles
|
15.34.
|
Charging needs for LCV and MCV/HCV
|
15.35.
|
Opportunity charging makes batteries for trucks smaller
|
|
|
16.
|
SMART ROADS FOR ELECTRIC TRUCKS
|
16.1.
|
There's Now An Electric Highway In California
|
16.2.
|
Mack demonstrates catenary-powered PHEV
|
16.3.
|
Volvo's electric roads point to battery-free EV future
|
16.4.
|
Dynamic EV charging
|
16.5.
|
Qualcomm
|
16.6.
|
ElectRoad
|
16.7.
|
University of Washington
|
16.8.
|
Auckland University
|
|
|
17.
|
AUTONOMOUS TRUCKING
|
17.1.
|
Joint venture for autonomous electric trucks
|
17.2.
|
Joint venture: CEO statements
|
17.3.
|
What Does Tesla's Automated Truck Mean for Truckers?
|
17.4.
|
Automation levels in trucking explained
|
17.5.
|
Uber acquiring Otto sets the scene on fire?
|
17.6.
|
Embark: Hybrid approach for autonomous truck driving on highways
|
17.7.
|
Starsky Robotics: retrofitting existing trucks and making them remote-controlled
|
17.8.
|
Baidu: becoming the Android of autonomous vehicles
|
17.9.
|
TuSimple: Chinese Al provider for level-4 autonomous trucks
|
17.10.
|
Market forecasts for autonomous trucking: a 20-year view for level-4 and level-5 automation (market share as % total truck unit sales)
|
17.11.
|
Historical price evolution for cameras, primary/secondary memory, computing and photovoltaics
|
17.12.
|
Ten-year and twenty-year component-segmented price projections for hardware for autonomous mobility
|
17.13.
|
Market forecasts for autonomous trucking: a 20-year view for level-4 and level-5 automation (in unit numbers and dollars)
|
17.14.
|
Market forecasts for autonomous trucking: a 20-year view for the value of automation hardware/components
|
17.15.
|
The economic case for autonomous trucks
|
17.16.
|
Pelton: V2V links to enable closer platooning
|
|
|
18.
|
MARKET FORECASTS 2018-2028
|
18.1.
|
Assumptions behind the forecasts - light-duty vehicles (LDV)
|
18.2.
|
Assumptions behind the forecasts - medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MDV/HDV)
|
18.3.
|
Average battery size for vans and trucks (kWh) 2018-2028
|
18.4.
|
LDV - Market forecasts (000's units) 2018-2028
|
18.5.
|
LDV - Market forecasts (GWh) 2018-2028
|
18.6.
|
LDV - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2018-2028
|
18.7.
|
LDV - Market forecasts ($B) 2018-2028
|
18.8.
|
MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (000's units) 2018-2028
|
18.9.
|
MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (000's units) - battery-powered and fuel cells 2018-2028
|
18.10.
|
MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (GWh) 2018-2028
|
18.11.
|
MDV/HDV - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2018-2028
|
18.12.
|
MDV/HDV - Market forecasts ($B) 2018-2028
|