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PMI® at 59.7%; December Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®New Orders, Production, and Employment Continue Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slowing at Faster Rate; Backlog Growing; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting, Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing at Faster Rate TEMPE, Ariz., Jan. 3, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December, and the overall economy grew for the 103rd consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The December PMI® registered 59.7 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the November reading of 58.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 69.4 percent, an increase of 5.4 percentage points from the November reading of 64 percent. The Production Index registered 65.8 percent, a 1.9 percentage point increase compared to the November reading of 63.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 57 percent, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the November reading of 59.7 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.9 percent, a 1.4 percentage point increase from the November reading of 56.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 48.5 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the November reading of 47 percent. The Prices Index registered 69 percent in December, a 3.5 percentage point increase from the November reading of 65.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 22nd consecutive month. Comments from the panel reflect expanding business conditions, with new orders and production leading gains; employment expanding at a slower rate; order backlogs expanding at a faster rate; and export orders and imports continuing to grow in December. Supplier deliveries continued to slow (improving) at a faster rate, and inventories continued to contract at a slower rate during the period. Price increases continued at a faster rate. The Customers' Inventories Index declined and remains at low levels." Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 16 reported growth in December in the following order: Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Two industries reported contraction during the period: Wood Products; and Textile Mills. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes. COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in Price Commodities Down in Price Commodities in Short Supply Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. DECEMBER 2017 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES PMI® A PMI® above 43.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December PMI® indicates growth for the 103rd consecutive month in the overall economy and the 16th straight month of growth in the manufacturing sector. Fiore says, "The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI® for January through December (57.6 percent) corresponds to a 4.5 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis. In addition, if the PMI® for December (59.7 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 5.2 percent increase in real GDP annually." THE LAST 12 MONTHS
New Orders Fifteen of 18 industries reported growth in new orders in December, listed in the following order: Machinery; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in new orders in December compared to November is Wood Products.
Production The 13 industries reporting growth in production during the month of December — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The only industry reporting a decrease in production in December compared to November is Nonmetallic Mineral Products.
Employment Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 11 reporting employment growth in December — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Two industries — Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Fabricated Metal Products — reported a decrease in employment in December.
Supplier Deliveries The 12 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in December — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Two industries — Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Transportation Equipment — reported faster deliveries in December compared to November.
Inventories* The 10 industries reporting higher inventories in December — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The seven industries reporting lower inventories in December — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment.
Customers' Inventories* One manufacturing industry — Furniture & Related Products — reported customers' inventories as being too high during the month of December. The 13 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during December — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Prices* Seventeen industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials in December, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Paper Products. The only industry reporting price decreases in December compared to November is Textile Mills.
Backlog of Orders* The 11 industries reporting growth in order backlogs in December — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Primary Metals. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs during December are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.
New Export Orders* The 10 industries reporting growth in new export orders in December — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in new export orders in December compared to November is Primary Metals. Six industries reported no change in new export orders in December compared to November.
Imports* The 13 industries reporting growth in imports during the month of December — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Paper Products. The only industry that reported a decrease in imports during December compared to November is Primary Metals.
*The Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments. Buying Policy
About This Report The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making. Data and Method of Presentation Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted), and Inventories. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI® above 43.3 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 43.3 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 43.3 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month. The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease. 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