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Keeping Up with a Fast-Evolving Internet [Futurist, The](Futurist, The Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Lee Rainie doesn't strongly self- identify as a futurist. As the director of the Pew Research Center 's Inter- net & American Life Project, he spe- cializes in surveying the present- specifically, present-day attitudes toward (and uses of) Web technol- ogy. But the people he surveys have much to say about the Internet's future, too. "I am the least future-oriented per- son, probably, in this room," he told the WorldFuture 2014 audience. "But we do these surveys about the future of the Internet. And my hope is that the smart people that respond to t he s e s urv ey s w i l l give us som e clues on the things that matter." Rainie shared findings from the 2014 Future of the Internet, an an- nual poll launched in 2004 by the In- ternet & American Life Project. Input from 2,551 survey respondents went into this edition, which focused on how the Internet would progress by 2025. Not surprisingly, respondents saw much that they liked and much that they did not. The Internet of Things-i.e., prolif- eration of devices other than com- puters connecting to the Internet, in- cluding health-monitoring devices, parking meters, and thermostats- wasn't a factor in 2004, but it is now. And it will become a bigger and big- ger factor as 2025 approaches, Rainie said. Connectivity in general will keep growing, as well. The survey respon- dents anticipated more and more of the world's people not only gaining Internet access, but having it at all places and at all hours. "The whole globalized, sensitized, wearable Internet is on its way and will be a fact of life in the next 11 yea r s, pa r ticula r l y in de ve l o ped c ou n t ri e s , bu t t h ro u g h o u t t he globe," said Rainie. "More band- width and more online activities will be things that we will all take for granted." Survey respondents were largely favorable toward all of this. When asked, "Will the Internet of Things have widespread and beneficial ef- fects by 2025?" 83% said yes. And when asked, "By 2025, will there be significant changes for the worse in h o w p e o p l e g e t a n d share content online?" 65% said no. When Rainie and col- le a gues asked re spo n- dents to further explain their answers, however, s o me un de r l yin g co n- cerns came out. Many re- s po nd e nt s a c kn ow l - edge d s om e d egree of worry about each of the following: * Internet abuses and ab u s ers w ill evolve in scale. Those who engage in bullying, stalking, and crime will gain new ca- p aci t y t o ca us e ha r m, and they will use it. * Go vernments and corporations will inten- sify their surveillance of p r iv at e in di vi du a ls, leading to a widespread loss of trust in the Inter- net among users. * New regulations on in f o r ma tion s har i ng might go too far and ob- struct legitimate sharing of ideas and content. * C om me rc i al p res s ure s co uld threaten the flow of information. * Socioeconomic fissures might widen as less-advantaged people- who either lack access to Web tech- nology or the necessary skills to use it-will fall further behind. * National governments will im- pose more security and political con- trols over Internet use within their borders, leading to more blocking, filtering, segmentation, and overall balkanization of the Web. It's noteworthy that respondents often viewed government regulation as part of the problem rather than a solution. Quite a few respondents h e l d l i tt le ho p e t h at l aw m a k er s w ou l d be s a v v y a nd f a s t- a c ti ng e noug h to resolv e th e I nt e rne t' s problems. "Many of them told us that regula- tors are only now respondin g to things that were cutting-edge seven or eight years ago, and that we will never catch up," Rainie said. Another widespread concern was how the Internet contributes to polit- ical partisanship and a breakdown of civil dialogue. Divisive discourse is a problem on the Internet, he agreed. But that's only because the Internet gives those who are ignorant and uninformed more opportunities to voice their erroneous views. "We argue about much more stuff than we used to. Ages ago, newspa- p ers really def i ne d w hat p eople talked about. They put up parame- ters on what was legitimate to talk about and what was not. Now, every aspect of human behavior is ele- vated, incl u ding w rongne s s ," he said. But fortunately, those who are bet- ter-informed have a platform, too. And Rainie banks on them prevail- ing in the end. "There is more stupidity evident on the Internet, so that's distressing to people. But the long run of history is that the stupid don't win," he said. "If you hold too long to inaccurate belief, you get opposed by history." -RD Lee Rainie outlines findings on the future of the Internet: Connectivity will keep growing, but so will abuses. Rick Docksai, former senior editor of THE FUTURIST, is a writer and editor for the U.S. Department of Defense. Read his full report on the opening plenary session of WorldFuture 2014 at www.wfs.org/blogs/rick-docksai. (c) 2014 World Future Society |