New Market Research Report: Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014 [ClickPress (UK)]
(ClickPress (UK) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) [ClickPress, Mon Sep 01 2014] CORE VIEWS
* Kazakhstan will not face the Russian annexation of regions heavily populated by ethnic Russians as occurred in the Ukrainian region of Crimea in early 2014. While northern Kazakhstan does have a high proportion of ethnic Russians, any aggressive action by Russia would spark backlash from rising regional power China, and put on hold any expansion of the Eurasian Economic Union.
* Kyrgyzstan's reliance on gold exports and workers' remittances from Russia will mean the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks in the years ahead. In 2014 and 2015 the drought in northern Kyrgyzstan combined with increased demand from Russia for Kyrgyz agricultural imports will see food price inflation rise, subduing private consumption growth.
* Despite an increase in violence along Turkmenistan's Afghan border, and more intense international scrutiny due to several high-profile bilateral visits, we do not see any significant threats to President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov's hold on power. In fact, economic reforms, far from creating a middle class inclined to protest, will solidify the regime's position through the use of generous public subsidies and political patronage.
Full Report Details at
MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
* The Kazakh central bank will be reluctant to allow another significant one-off devaluation of the tenge, as occurred in February 2009 and February 2014. This is due to the negative impact on the banking sector, which is already struggling with an increase in bad FX loans following the February 2014 devaluation, and to stem the social tensions that have historically flared up in Kazakhstan following currency devaluations. We believe that rather than allowing depreciatory pressures to build up to the point where a significant devaluation is required, the central bank will engage in a series of shifts of the exchange rate band. We forecast the tenge to reach KZT210.00/USD by end 2015 and KZT222.00/USD by end 2016.
KEY RISKS TO OUTLK
* With Russia's geopolitical...
The Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI). Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
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