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UKRAINE: DEBATE OVER JOINING NATO ERUPTS AGAIN
[February 18, 2008]

UKRAINE: DEBATE OVER JOINING NATO ERUPTS AGAIN


(English IPS News Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)
PRAGUE, Feb. 15, 2008 (IPS/GIN) -- Ukraine's pro-Western
'Orange' leaders seem to be aiming at NATO membership, but face
hurdles from Russia, public opinion and even politicians in their
own camp.

The debate has re-emerged after Ukrainian President Viktor
Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yuliya Timoshenko and Parliament Speaker
Arseniy Yatsenyuk sent a letter to NATO (North Atlantic Treaty
Organization) Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer on Ukraine
joining the organization's Membership Action Plan (MAP) during the
Bucharest NATO summit to be held in April.

Never have all branches of power in Ukraine expressed their
opinion on NATO so clearly. It is a sign that the country's
leadership is trying to accelerate the process of euro-Atlantic
integration, and make it irreversible.

"Deep and irreversible democratic changes have today become an
objective background for solving the principal issues on complying
with the criteria necessary for NATO membership," the leaders
wrote.

After 10 former states of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact
joined NATO in recent years, Moscow sees in Ukraine's aspirations
a further advancement of Western interests in its vicinity.

Furthermore, Russia is engaged in active military cooperation
with Ukraine, and has a strong military presence in Crimea.

In a recent joint press conference in Moscow, which mostly
focused on gas talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin and
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko agreed that Ukraine's NATO
aspirations are an internal issue, and Putin promised not to
interfere.

Nonetheless, the Russian President, in the vein of what had
recently been said by a handful of Russian officials, indicated
that Ukraine's NATO membership would force Moscow to take measures.

"Russia will strongly oppose any Ukrainian move in the direction
of NATO until Ukraine actually becomes a member. Once it is, it
will finish," Natalya Shapovalova, foreign policy analyst at the
Kiev-based International Center Centre for Policy Studies saidtold
IPS.

Both Russia and Ukraine are already partner states to the
alliance, and have conducted military drills with NATO member
states as well. Ukraine was even engaged in NATO operations in
Iraq, Afghanistan and the Balkans.

Contrary to speculation in much of the media, the analyst
refuses to directly link the latest Russian-Ukrainian gas row to
disagreements over Kiev's NATO bid.

"Gas issues have a very economic nature. Gazprom holders want
to earn more and there is no secret that the price will be
increasing constantly whether Ukraine joins the MAP or not."

To quell Moscow's fears, Yushchenko promised to take legal steps
that will ensure no foreign military base can ever be built on
Ukrainian soil.

But it remains unclear if this will suffice in persuading NATO
members who maintain good relations with Moscow to accept Ukraine
into the family. Only some Eastern European members and the United
States have clearly voiced support for Kiev's membership bid.

Yushchenko and his allies hope NATO will help modernizemodernise
the obsolete Ukrainian armed forces and bring the country's
legislation closer to EU (European Union) standards -- Kiev's
ultimate and consensual foreign policy goal being EU membership.

Proponents of NATO membership also expect economic benefits in
the form of increased foreign direct investment and a growth in
Ukraine's arms exports.

Pro-presidential forces argue that the MAP only guarantees
enhanced cooperation but not accession, for which they are willing
to hold a referendum.

Angry opposition MPs -- led by the Party of the Regions (PR) of
former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich -- have blocked the
parliament rostrum in protest, arguing the MAP will divide society.

The PR, which is believed to be covertly supporting NATO
membership, has always been cautious not to anger either its
electorate or Russia.

The previous Yanukovich cabinet, which had to consider the
stances of socialist and communist coalition partners and the
public, had not attempted to join the MAP, seemingly postponing the
issue.

"The issue of NATO in Ukraine is not treated as a policy option
for Ukraine's security and defensedefence but only as a tool for
political campaigning," Shapovalova saidtold IPS.

"The PR is putting this issue on the table so expressively only
when it is in opposition, in order to weaken the coalition and get
more scores in the eyes of their voters," the analyst notes.

Former defensedefence minister and Yushchenko appointee Anatoliy
Hrytsenko last year even praised Yanukovich's efforts as a prime
minister in the field of Euro-Atlantic integration, and said more
was done than under their 'Orange' predecessors, leaving many
observers baffled.

Incidentally, Timoshenko has also favorfavoured what she calls
a "step-by-step" approach, for once drawing her position closer to
that of her arch-enemies from the opposition.

But Shapovalova is also skepticsceptical of the prime minister's
stance: "Timoshenko doesn't want to show off her support of NATO
because the majority of the population is against it and she needs
their votes to win the presidential elections in 2009."

The public's changing mood on NATO has been carefully followed
by Ukrainian media and think tanks, with the latest research
showing that both ambivalence and curiosity regarding the
organization are on the rise.

However, half of Ukrainians still oppose membership whereas,
depending on the survey, only up to 30 percent would approve of it.

Supporters of NATO membership, concentrated mostly in the
country's west, tend to say it will guarantee Ukraine's
independence and unity and bring democratic development and
European values.

Opponents, hailing predominantly from the east and south, see
NATO as an aggressive organization, and fear that Ukrainians will
face loss of lives in foreign missions.

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