Report: Next Generation Wireless Coming

By ROBERT LIU
TMCnet Wireless and Technology Columnist

While some research firms foresee an inauspicious start for North American deployment of next-generation cellular data services, a new white paper suggests that system operators are starting to embrace faster high-speed standards, which are still expected to be widely deployed by 2006.

As network capacity grows, wireless data is expected to surpass voice traffic on cellular networks just as wireline data now accounts for more than 50 percent of traffic within worldwide telecom networks. However, at present, wireless data still represents just a fraction of the industry’s total service revenue, the report said. Data services revenue is approaching 10 percent of average revenue per user (APRU) in Europe and Asia but lower in North America.

And, according to the report entitled “Data Capabilities: GPRS to HSDPA and BEYOND,” the best way to increase network capacity is by adopting High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), the so-called 3.5G technology that is the successor to Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) and Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE) cellular systems.

"Proportionally, as customer uptake for high-speed wireless data applications increases, so will the need for more spectral capacity, greater throughput, improved latency and lower cost per bit of data,” Chris Pearson, President of 3G , said in a press statement.

3G , the publishers of the report, is an organization formed three years ago to advocate and advance 3G wireless services throughout North America. What sets 3G apart from other trade organizations is the number of cellular operators (like Cingular Wireless, T-Mobile and Rogers of Canada) that participate on the board in addition to customary gear or component manufacturers. The 62-page white paper is available as a free download from the organization’s Web site.

Still, 3G ’s study is published at a time when many other carriers are taking a wait-and-see approach in the upgrade cycle. For example, a study by ABI Research predicts that operators will likely drag their heels in order to maximize the return on investment on the infrastructure they’ve already built.

To be sure, 3GPP (the cellular industry’s worldwide governing body) has already made HSDPA, a packet-based WCDMA protocol with peak data transmission speeds of up to 14 megabits per second (Mbps), available in its Release 5. And manufacturers are throwing their weight behind. Ericsson last week managed to sign network contracts with operators in Malaysia and Israel.

Overall, there are 19 operators that have made commitments to HSDPA, the new report said. Operators will trial HSDPA in 2005 with commercial availability by the end of 2005 or early 2006. Cingular Wireless is expected to be the first operator to launch HSDPA and has stated that they will cover 15 to 20 markets by year-end 2005. NTT DoCoMo is expected to quickly follow Cingular and deploy HSDPA in early 2006.

Part of the appeal of HSDPA is its ability to maximize spectrum efficiency. The white paper said HSDPA with its enhanced features could increase spectral efficiency by a factor of 2.5 – 3.5 time when operators complete an upgrade of their UMTS networks.

"The GPRS to HSDPA evolution provides one of the most robust technology portfolios and an optimum framework for realizing the inevitable mass market potential for mobile wireless data," confirmed the paper's author Peter Rysavy.

----

Robert Liu is Executive Editor at TMCnet. Previously, he was Executive Editor at Jupitermedia and has also written for CNN, A&E, Dow Jones and Bloomberg. For more articles, please visit Robert Liu's columnist page.

[ Back To TMCnet.com's Homepage ]