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South Africa's leading business cycle indicator up 0.8% m/m in August [IntelliNews - Weekly Reports](IntelliNews - Weekly Reports Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) said its composite leading business cycle indicator, a method used to forecast turning points in the business cycle, rose 0.8% m/m in August after staying flat m/m in July (revised from a 0.3% growth). The indicator, which gathers data such as vehicle sales, job advertisements, business confidence, manufacturing orders and money supply to estimate the economic outlook, stood at 100.5, by 0.1% higher compared to August 2013. This was its first y/y increase in 10 months, according to the revised data. The central bank said that 6 of the indicator's 11 component time series that were available for August improved and 5 worsened. The largest positive contributions came from a rise in the number of residential building plans passed and an increase in the volume of manufacturing orders. On the opposite, the main negative contributor was a decrease in the export commodity price index, followed by a decrease in the average number of hours worked in the manufacturing sector. SARB's composite coincident business cycle indicator, which provides information about the current state of the economy, fell 0.8% m/m, but rose 1.7% y/y in July. The composite lagging business cycle indicator increased 1.1% m/m, but decreased 1.3% y/y in July. Lagging indicators usually change after the economy as a whole does with the typical lag being several quarters. (c) 2014 Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings LLC Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info). |