Oct 19, 2008 (The Columbus Dispatch - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) --
When he canvasses his boyhood neighborhoods on the east side of Toledo, Peter Ujvagi doesn't lug along printouts of micro-targeted research to find voters he needs to persuade to support Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.

Ujvagi, a state representative, not only knows which houses to hit, he knows which lapel sticker to give to whoever answers the door. He carries three kinds: Polish Americans for Obama, Hungarian Americans for Obama, and Ukrainian Americans for Obama.

Eastern European traditions still run thick on Toledo's heavily Democratic east side, and Ujvagi knows that some of the older voters might be hesitant to support an African-American for president.

"Their children and grandchildren are as enthusiastic about Obama as you can get," said Ujvagi, a Hungarian descendant. "It's the parents and grandparents you have to reach back to and convince."

So, with his stickers, Ujvagi has tried to make voting for Obama a matter of ethnic pride.
These days, voter turnout efforts don't need to rely on the instincts of old political hands like Ujvagi. Computers tell legions of volunteers for Obama and Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, not only which voters to call or visit, but also what kind of cars they drive, magazines they read, toilet paper they use, and what cable news shows they watch.

As a result, the McCain and Obama campaigns don't waste time wooing votes they have little chance of getting. Micro-targeting largely has taken the guesswork out of pinpointing which voters are for you, which are against you and which can be persuaded.

"A lot of work is done beforehand, figuring who are those voters who are McCain voters," said Mike DuHaime, McCain's national political director. "It's gotten more sophisticated because it builds on information."

That information, as many as 200 bits per voter, is gleaned by both campaigns from U.S. Census and other public sources, or purchased from credit-card issuers and commercial information-gathering firms that track such things as family characteristics and shopping behavior.

All that information about voters, though, is useless without the field staff and scores of volunteers to make the contacts. Both campaigns have devoted vast resources to Ohio. Obama has opened 89 offices and has more than 300 paid staffers in Ohio, more than any other state except Florida, said Steve Hildebrand, deputy campaign manager.

"You will see voter turnout in this state and other states beyond record numbers, and that benefits us," Hildebrand said.

DuHaime said the McCain campaign has about 40 offices and 60 paid staffers in Ohio. "They've got more staff, but I do think we've got a solid, committed volunteer corps," he said.

DuHaime said McCain's statewide voter turnout operation has a leg up because it is overseen by four veterans of the political wars, including Chris McNulty, regional director for the Republican National Committee, who has run campaigns in Ohio during the last five election cycles.

"The best thing we have going is the people who run it here have done it before, and multiple times before," DuHaime said.

In 2004, President Bush's get-out-the-vote organization arguably was the best ever in the state. DuHaime said in the weeks before the election that the McCain campaign is ahead of that effort.

"Right now, we're making about 40 percent more volunteer phone calls and door knocks than we were in the same weeks in 2004," he said.

Both campaigns are so sophisticated that they can tell volunteers what issue might move every voter they contact -- the economy, health care, guns, abortion -- and volunteers are equipped with talking points to close the deal.

McCain's campaign has phones that allow volunteers to call potential supporters and use buttons on the phone to record information about them that automatically updates computer voter files.

In the past, volunteers at phone banks had to record information on paper that was later typed into computer files of filled-out sheets that were scanned. Now, the information is updated in real time for more efficient targeting of voters.

The Obama campaign has a national e-mail list of 5 million people, just the beginning of what is being called one of the most comprehensive political databases ever assembled. Last week, the Obama campaign said about 6,500 volunteers made 443,386 phone calls to Ohio voters and visited 391,743 homes.

Four years ago, Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, largely farmed out voter registration and turnout efforts to supportive independent groups such as labor unions and America Coming Together. Voter turnout in traditional Democratic areas, especially urban counties, was strong, but Kerry got swamped by Bush in the rural and suburban counties.

Obama's campaign learned a lesson, first by setting up its own field operation and second by installing staffers and recruiting volunteers in all 88 counties. His "Change Begins in Ohio" strategy includes more than 1,200 neighborhood teams of volunteers going door to door to engage voters in conversations.

Gov. Ted Strickland, an Obama supporter, concedes that Republicans once had an advantage over Democrats in generating turnout in Ohio. But he argues that Obama and the Democrats are better-positioned this year.

The governor noted that the campaign has more paid staffers this year in Butler County, a GOP stronghold, than it did in Democratic-leaning Franklin County, Ohio's second largest county, in 2004.

The Republicans may yet show their prowess at the ground game in this election, but Strickland said he thinks in a close race, the Democrats' organization this year could decide the race in Ohio.

"I think the winning difference in Ohio is going to be the incredible organization that has been established here for Barack Obama," Strickland said last week. "I've never seen anything like it."

jhallett@dispatch.com
mniquette@dispatch.com
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