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Poll shows Guthrie up 6 points over Boswell: Ads' effect disputed
(Messenger-Inquirer (Owensboro, KY) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Sep. 27--The latest public poll in Kentucky's 2nd District after a week filled with new TV ads and fact-checking disputes has Republican Brett Guthrie up by 6 points over his Democratic opponent David Boswell.
The poll conducted by SurveyUSA for WHAS-TV in Louisville and released Friday shows 49 percent of likely voters surveyed favor Guthrie, a state senator from Bowling Green, compared to only 43 percent supporting Boswell, a Sorgho state senator
"We're working on our campaign, working hard," Guthrie said when asked about the results. "We're just going to focus on our race and run a strong, ethical campaign."
The new results mark Guthrie's first lead in polls released to the public since the race began and a shift in positions from the polling firm's last survey in June that showed Boswell ahead 47 percent to 43 percent.
SurveyUSA sampled 592 likely voters on Wednesday and Thursday for the poll that had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
This poll immediately followed the start of a controversial television ad produced by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that began airing in the Louisville market Tuesday.
The ad made claims that Guthrie's company, Trace Die Cast Inc., sent manufacturing work to Mexico. That claim was disputed by Guthrie, Trace Die Cast Inc. and the National Republican Congressional Committee. At least one of the four stations that was airing the ad pulled it from the air.
Boswell attributed Guthrie's bump to the head start Guthrie had in running television commercials but said he didn't see any impact from the DCCC ad that began running this week.
Guthrie aired his first ad Sept. 12, while Boswell's first ad didn't hit the air until Tuesday -- the same day the DCCC ad began airing.
"Obviously they had about a 10-day jump on us with media and online with their commercials," Boswell said. "I would anticipate there would be some degree of fluctuation with that. ... It's not the end of the world."
Boswell said again Friday that he has not seen the DCCC's ad, which he said wasn't produced or paid for by his campaign.
"I'm about tired of responding to that (ad)," Boswell said. "I guess that's part of the process."
Guthrie saw more of a connection between the DCCC ad and the results from this week's poll.
"I think people are tired of negative campaigning. They're tired of Washington-style attack ads," Guthrie said. "When you invite that kind of politics into your campaign, as Sen. Boswell's done ... it's just not going to change Washington."
Compared to SurveyUSA's previous poll, Guthrie made gains among male voters, who had previously been split between the two candidates but now favor Guthrie by 12 percentage points.
Boswell has described himself as a conservative Democrat, and on Thursday received the endorsement of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate to conservative Democrats in Congress.
But those surveyed this week who identified themselves as conservative largely preferred Guthrie by a margin of 75 to 17 percent, compared to 70 to 23 percent in the June poll.
Boswell leads among those that describe themselves as moderate and liberal, two groups that accounted for 43 percent of those surveyed.
Kentucky's 2nd District is a Democratic district according to voter registration but has sent Republican Ron Lewis to Congress since 1994. Lewis, who is from Cecilia, is retiring next year after seven terms in office.
Evidence of those crossover voters was seen in today's survey results that showed 21 percent of Democrats surveyed saying they would vote for Guthrie. Among Republicans surveyed, 8 percent said they would vote for Boswell, according to the poll.
A third poll from earlier this month by the Garin-Hart-Yang firm conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had Boswell with a 9-point lead over Guthrie.
Another telling statistic was among those who said they could possibly change their minds.
In the June SurveyUSA poll, about a third -- 30 percent -- said they could change their mind between now and Election Day on Nov. 4, but this week's poll found only about one-fifth -- 21 percent -- could still choose differently at the polls.
To see more of the Messenger-Inquirer, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.messenger-inquirer.com.
Copyright (c) 2008, Messenger-Inquirer, Owensboro, Ky.
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
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