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North Texas growth in 2007: slower, but still healthy, report shows
(Dallas Morning News, The (KRT) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Jun. 27--North Texas added 131,000 people in 2007, fewer than in years past but healthy growth nonetheless, according to a report released Thursday.
Population estimates prepared by the North Central Texas Council of Governments show that all but two cities in the region grew last year. But only a handful of small cities registered anything close to the explosive growth once experienced by dozens of towns.
"It's the same story that's been going around for the past few months now," said Duane Dankesreiter, the agency's research manager. "Things are slowing down a bit, but it's not as bad as other parts of the country."
The council of governments bases its estimates on housing statistics, and its research reflects well-known market conditions.
The region added fewer single-family homes in 2007, but more multifamily units. And a higher number of single-family units remained vacant at year's end than in the past.
But compared with the rest of the nation, Dallas-Fort Worth's slowdown should be considered "very, very mild," said Lyssa Jenkens, chief economist of the Greater Dallas Chamber.
Housing value declines are much smaller than in the rest of the country and area job growth remains strong, she said.
"If you've got to be anywhere in the U.S. right now, this is the place to be. No doubt about it," she said.
The five area cities that gained the most people accounted for 40 percent of the region's total growth. That included Dallas, which added 19,850 people, slightly more than neighboring Fort Worth, which ranked second with 16,000.
North Texas' fastest-growing cities are also its smallest. Among the top 10 percentage gainers in 2007, only Royse City and Forney have estimated populations above 10,000.
Lavon, in Collin County, had the area's highest growth rate, 25.8 percent. It passed Fate in Rockwall County, which had held the top spot for three years. Fate's growth rate slowed to 14.3 percent, nearly half from last year and a huge decline from the 61 percent it saw in 2005.
When cities experience such phenomenal growth, lulls can actually prove beneficial, Mr. Dankesreiter said.
"Four hundred homes to a town that's a thousand [population], that's a tremendous pressure on a town if they aren't ready for it," he said. "They need some slowdown in order to catch up."
Among cities with more than 25,000 residents, Frisco grew fastest, followed by McKinney and Burleson. Grapevine added 1,600 people, jumping from No. 32 in 2006 to No. 8 last year.
"For all practical purposes, we're built out on residential," said Tommy Hardy, Grapevine assistant city manager. "We've had some multifamily property around the mall that's been developing the last year or so."
University Park and Richardson registered the only population losses in the region, 300 and 250 people, respectively.
Richardson City Manager Bill Keffler said the decrease in his city most likely resulted from the demolition of a large apartment complex being redeveloped. He expects the city to experience small ups and downs as infill housing is built and older apartments are torn down.
"You will see a little larger increase if the reinvention of Richardson and the transit-oriented development keeps going as planned," Mr. Keffler said. "But we're talking about incremental growth now."
The council of governments annually prepares population estimates for 157 cities and 16 counties. It measures annual estimates as of Jan. 1 and typically releases the report in March.
Mr. Dankesreiter said the agency delayed this year's report after noticing early numbers showed a much steeper decline in growth than reflected in U.S. Census Bureau estimates released earlier this year.
Researchers determined they were using outdated occupancy rate statistics and not calculating the growth rate over a full year. Mr. Dankesreiter feels confident that Thursday's report is accurate.
"We do a good job at getting the numbers close. It's an estimate, and we'll find out how good it is in 2011," when the 2010 census data is released, he said.
Staff writers Ian McCann and Jay Parsons contributed to this report.
A look at the numbers
North Texas cities grew more slowly than in previous years, but the area as a whole is still getting larger, according to estimates released Thursday.
Big cities got bigger ...
Some of the area's largest cities saw the largest numerical gains in 2007:
... But small cities grew fastest
The cities with the largest percentage gains in 2007 were among the smallest:
Overall growth was slight
County population growth in 2007 reveals how overall, the area is still growing:
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Copyright (c) 2008, The Dallas Morning News
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