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Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q1 2009
[April 17, 2009]

Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q1 2009


(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) -www.companiesandmarkets.com adds new report: Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q1 2009 In this latest update on Nigeria's telecommunications market, BMI has revised and extended its forecasts for the development of fixed line, internet and mobile telephony services. Our new forecasts reflect data published by leading telecoms operators, such as MTN of South Africa and Zain of Kuwait, as well by Nigeria's telecoms regulator, the NCC, which depicts the size of the market at the end of September 2008. In addition to revising our estimate for the size of Nigeria's various telecoms market segments at the end of 2008, our new forecasts have been adjusted and extended to the end of 2013.



According to the telecoms regulator, Nigeria had 55.836mn active mobile subscribers at the end of September 2008; this is equivalent to a penetration rate of 35.5% and reflects growth of more than 38% in the first nine months of the year. Based on this performance, we estimate that Nigeria finished 2008 with a little over 62.8mn mobile customers and a penetration rate of almost 40%.

In addition to a considerably improved performance from MTN in Q308, one of the most notable developments in the final few months of 2008 was the dramatic increase in the number of CDMA mobile customers. By the end of September 2008, CDMA users represented 7.4% of Nigeria's mobile customers, up from 4% at the end of the previous quarter and 1% at the start of the year. Growth in the number of CDMA mobile customers will provide an important stimulus to Nigeria's mobile market in the months ahead. Another development with major implications for the mobile market is the arrival of increased GSM competition in the form of Etisalat Nigeria, which launched its GSM 900/1800 network in October 2008.


Our new mobile growth forecast for Nigeria envisages mobile penetration rising to over 50% in 2009. By the end of 2013, we predict that the market will have grown to over 184mn mobile customers; this is equivalent to almost 106% penetration.

Meanwhile, the growth of mobile CDMA services appears to be having a negative impact on the fixed line sector, which saw a significant loss of, mainly fixed wireless, lines in Q308. It is expected that the eventual sale of Nigeria's fixed line incumbent operator Nitel to a strategic investor will bring a new round of investment for the country's tiny fixed line market. According to indications by the Nigerian government, a public hearing will be held in February 2009 to ensure that only a company with the necessary technical and financial expertise acquires the stake. The winner is expected to gain control of Nitel, together with its mobile business M-Tel, in late May 2009.

Nigeria has moved two places up our latest set of business environment rankings for Africa. Nigeria's own score has risen partly as a result of a stronger telecoms market rating, and partly due to weaker scores for Botswana and Egypt.

http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/link.asp?id=RF5TM1XTN65855 ((Comments on this story may be sent to [email protected])) (c) 2009 M2 COMMUNICATIONS LTD

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