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Negroponte: Computer adoption, VoIP threaten mobile operators
(BNamericas.com Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)The increased adoption of computers throughout the world, combined with free IP telephony services, present a growing threat to wireless operators, MIT Media Center director and One Laptop Per Child initiative leader Nicholas Negroponte said at Brazilian telecoms congress Telexpo.
"As people come online and use more computing - desktops and laptops - they are not going to bother using their cell phones. That's going to drop. And people already offer services that route calls through IP for free - not paid-for voice over IP. I think you're going to see that trend accelerate," said Negroponte.
This threat is expected to increase throughout the developing world, where mobile penetration tends to be far greater than fixed penetration, once distribution of the Negroponte's US$100 laptop begins through the MIT's One Laptop per Child (OLPC) campaign.
This is due to the serverless mesh networks that these laptops automatically create even when turned off, which have the potential to turn the machines into effective, if unwieldy, portable phones incurring no carrier charges.
The OLPC machines are planned to go alpha on July 15 and hit beta production before the end of 2006. China, India, Thailand, Egypt, Nigeria, Brazil and Argentina are the countries expected to buy the first lots of one million laptops each, though Negroponte said that there is a waiting list of countries to replace any of the current ones should they back out at the last minute.
When asked by BNamericas how international and inter-city backhaul would be handled in this scenario, given the extremely limited geographic range of mesh networks, Negroponte pointed to a series of potential solutions.
"The actual economics of telecommunications and building not just the international connections, but also the national ones, will require backhaul which has to be paid for by somebody. I think the way it gets paid for is just different. Do governments step in? Some of it, especially for the kids, may be like sidewalks - you and I use sidewalks and we don't pay for them, there's no toll gate," Negroponte told BNamericas.
"So some [parts of the telecommunications offering] will become like sidewalks. And some may be paid for on an annual basis, through taxes, or by pay-as-you-go. I think there will be a very full mix of [options], and that they will increase, not decrease," he added.
The OLPC project is backed by Google, AMD, Redhat, Nortel, Brightstar, Newscorp and Quanta, and is currently in talks with 3M and eBay.
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