Gov't to widen April-June GDP shrinkage in forecast: think tanks+
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[September 05, 2008]

Gov't to widen April-June GDP shrinkage in forecast: think tanks+

(Japan Economic Newswire Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) TOKYO, Sept. 5_(Kyodo) _ The government is expected to widen the margin of contraction in the Japanese economy in the April-June quarter to annualized rates of 3 to 4 percent from a preliminary figure, according to forecasts released by five private-sector economic institutes Friday.



The government announced in mid-August that the Japanese economy, as measured by gross domestic product, shrank at an annualized 2.4 percent in real terms in the three-month period for the first contraction in four quarters.

But Mizuho Securities Co. and four other institutes expect the Cabinet Office to report a larger contraction when it revises the preliminary figure next Friday as data on corporate capital spending in the quarter, which was announced by the Finance Ministry on Friday and will be taken into account for revising the preliminary GDP figure, showed a sharp decrease.



Mizuho Securities and BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Ltd. said the government will likely show a GDP contraction of 4.0 percent, the biggest shrinkage since the July-September quarter of 2001 when the Japanese economy contracted 4.4 percent following the burst of the information technology bubble in the United States.

Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co., Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. and Norinchukin Research Institute Co. projected the margin of contraction at 3.9, 3.8 and 3.3 percent, respectively.

Takeshi Minami, chief researcher at Norinchukin, said capital spending has been decreasing as a result of slowing exports.

Copyright ? 2008 Kyodo News International, Inc.

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