[September 26, 2006]

Dollar rises to 26.7 rubles/$1 at start of week; euro dips below $1.28

(Interfax News Agency Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) on Forex

MOSCOW. Sept 25 (Interfax) - The U.S. dollar's exchange rate against the ruble began the week by rising back up to 26.7 rubles/$1 on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) as the euro fell below $1.28 on the international Forex market.

The euro began to fall in international trading on Monday following the release of Eurozone statistics. In particular, the business optimism index fell in France and the consumer price index fell in two key part of Germany. After rising at the end of last week, the euro dropped to $1.277 from $1.282 on Monday.

On the MICEX, the dollar rose gradually all day and closed at 26.7 rubles/$1, which is five kopecks higher than on Friday.

RosEvroBank dealer Roman Frolov said the Eurozone statistics, particularly from Germany, caused the euro to correct downwards.

"In general, the slight drop can be considered a correction following the euro's growth last week, when the U.S. Federal Reserve System left the base interest rate unchanged. The main event of Monday will be the release of statistics on U.S. home sales in August, which could alter the distribution of power on the market," he told Interfax.

Brokerservicecredit analyst Dmitry Savchenko said the dollar strengthened its position against the euro following the release of the inflation statistics in Germany, however this fluctuation for now cannot be viewed as the most important event of the day since the U.S. real estate market statistics could also affect trading before the end of the day.

"These statistics could hit the dollar since the real estate sector has been the Achilles' heal of the U.S. economy recently. Other statistics are to be released this week, such as U.S. GDP estimates for the second quarter, which will be published at 4:30 p.m. Moscow time on Thursday, and they could affect the dollar's exchange rate if they confirm a slowdown in the U.S. growth rates," Savchenko said.

Econatsbank analyst Alexander Osin noted the U.S. consumer
trust
index for September will be released at 6:00 p.m. Moscow
time onTuesday. "Market forecasts indicate the index will rise to 102.3 against 99.6 in August," he said.

On the Russian market, the dynamics of the dollar/ruble pairing remain unchanged and the dollar's exchange rate continues to follow trends on the Forex, the analysts said.

"There haven't been any changes to the bi-currency basket, only an increase in dollar trading on the MICEX can be noted, which is primarily attributable to the approaching end of the month and the start of large tax payments. Banks and their clients sold dollars to the Central Bank against this backdrop," Frolov said.

The average weighted exchange rate of the dollar on the MICEX on Monday in Today deals grew 0.75 kopecks to 26.6712 rubles/$1 and by 2.17 kopecks in Tomorrow deals to 26.6808 rubles/$1.

Combined dollar trading on the MICEX on Monday amounted to $4.075 billion, of which $1.469 billion were Today deals and $2.606 billion rubles were Tomorrow deals.

The euro fell 5 kopecks to 34.12 rubles/EUR1 on Monday.
The average exchange rate of the euro in unified trading on
Mondayin Today deals grew 1.32 kopecks to 34.1591 rubles/EUR1. There were a total of 168 euro deals for EUR 17.278 million.

The exchange rate of the euro in unified trading on Monday in Tomorrow deals fell 3.62 kopecks to 34.1283 rubles/EUR1. There were a total of 110 deals for EUR 38.209 million. tj

Copyright 2006 Interfax News Agency. Source: Financial Times Information Limited.

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