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(2nd LD) N. Korean rocket could potentially hit half the U.S.: American scientists
SEOUL, Jul 02, 2009 (Asia Pulse Data Source via COMTEX) --
The long-range rocket North Korea launched in April could be converted into a ballistic missile capable of striking half of the continental U.S., two American physicists have concluded in a joint study.
North Korea launched on April 5 what it claims was a rocket designed to carry a satellite into orbit. The U.S. and its allies say nothing entered orbit, calling the "Unha-2" rocket a disguised ballistic missile capable of flying over 6,700km.
South Korean and U.S. officials have refrained from elaborating on the capabilities of the rocket, while media reports said the rocket flew at least 3,000km before falling into the Pacific Ocean.
MIT professor Theodore Postol and David Wright, a physicist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), said the rocket could fly even farther -- over 10,000km -- if converted into a missile.
"The Unha launcher represents a significant advance over North Korea's previous launchers and would have the capability to reach the continental United States with a payload of one ton or more if North Korea modified it for use as a ballistic missile," they said.
"It could have a range of 10,000-10,500km, allowing it to reach Alaska, Hawaii, and roughly half of the lower 48 states," they said in an article posted this week on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Noting that a "first-generation plutonium warhead could have a mass of 1,000kg or more," Postol and Wright said the rocket could carry a 1-ton payload as far as 7,000-7,500km even if it completed only two of its three stages.
"This would allow it to reach Alaska and parts of Hawaii, but not the lower 48 states," they said, writing on the assumption that the rocket was not designed to carry a lightweight satellite.
North Korea, which has conducted two known atomic tests since 2006 -- including one on May 25 this year -- is not believed to have obtained the capability to miniaturize nuclear warheads to mount on ballistic missiles.
South Korean defense officials believe the North has enough weapons-grade plutonium to create at least six nuclear bombs, but they said each one would weigh far more than one ton.
Postol and Wright based their analysis partly on the video footage of the rocket launch North Korea released in April, and said computer modeling and past analysis also contributed to their study.
"By measuring the distance the launcher moves as a function of time in these videos, we determined the thrust-to-weight ratio of the Unha vehicle at launch," they said. "Using estimates of the mass of the Unha launcher, we then estimated the thrust at liftoff generated by the engines."
Drawing similarities between the North Korean rocket and the components previously developed by China, Russia and Iran, the physicists concluded that "it's extremely unlikely that these technologies were indigenously produced by North Korea."
"It's likely that these critical rocket components were acquired from other countries, most notably Russia, although likely without the involvement of the Russian government," they said.
"If these guesses are true, it could mean that North Korea's indigenous missile capability could be significantly constrained if Pyongyang is denied further access to such components," they said.
North Korea is restricted from trading mass destruction weapons under sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council following its latest underground nuclear test.
Wright and Postol said North Korea would rely on "combining existing components in clever ways" or realize it has "a dead-end program" if it is blocked from importing technical supplies.
They also called on the U.S. to work with Russia to ascertain the extent of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang that has likely helped North Korea build its stockpile of ballistic missiles.
"It should be a high priority for the United States to assess it and work with Russia to determine what technical assistance and components North Korea may have received," they said.
Wright and Postol also said evidence points to cooperation between Iran and North Korea, rebutting speculation that the last stage of the Unha-2 rocket was solid-fueled.
"The third stage appears to be very similar, if not identical, to the upper stage of the Iranian Safir-2 launch vehicle, which placed a small satellite in orbit in February," they said.
"Therefore, the Unha-2 appears to use a third stage with liquid rather than solid fuel," they wrote.
South Korean and U.S. officials say the final stage of the Unha-2 rocket separated but failed to ignite, plunging into the Pacific Ocean along with the payload.
Postol, whose expertise lies in ballistic missile technologies, teaches science, technology and national security policy at MIT. Wright co-directs the Global Security Program at the UCS.
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