[November 02, 2009]

2010 Gubernatorial race: Wilson balks, leaving GOP in scramble [The Santa Fe New Mexican]

(Santa Fe New Mexican, The (NM) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Oct. 30--The woman who political observers say could have been the Republican front-runner in next year's gubernatorial primary -- and the toughest opponent for likely Democratic nominee Diane Denish -- said Thursday she won't run.

Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson of Albuquerque issued a statement saying that while she appreciates those who encouraged her to run for governor, "I am well aware of the demands and limitations of elected office." Wilson, who represented the Albuquerque area's 1st Congressional District for five terms until last year, said, "My work in the private sector is satisfying, I do volunteer work that matters, and I am enjoying having more personal time to spend with family and friends. The governor of New Mexico has no significant national security role -- an issue area that continues to be an important part of my life. Running for office and being governor means setting these things aside." Wilson's decision leaves four Republican contenders: former state GOP Chairman Allen Weh, Las Cruces District Attorney Susana Martinez, Albuquerque public-relations company owner Doug Turner, and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, R-Albuquerque.

"All four Republican candidates benefit from this," said pollster Brian Sanderoff, who owns Research & Polling Inc. in Albuquerque. "This takes out the presumed front-runner and gives all the others a chance to blossom politically. They all can go to the Republicans who have been on the sidelines and seek the support of those who have been waiting for Heather to decide." But Wilson taking herself out of the race ultimately could benefit Denish, the current lieutenant governor, in the November 2010 general election, Sanderoff said, because Wilson was the only one of the Republicans with statewide name recognition.

Lonna Atkeson, a political science professor at The University of New Mexico, agreed that Wilson's name recognition made her the front-runner. The remaining Republicans all have "regional appeal," she said. But Wilson's decision, Atkeson said, leaves a Republican field that is under-funded, relatively unknown and likely to have a divisive primary race.

On the other hand, she noted, Denish is well-known, has no apparent primary competition and has a growing $2 million campaign war chest.

Incumbent Democrat Bill Richardson by law can't seek a consecutive third term.

But not all is bleak for the GOP field, Atkeson said. The recent election of Republican R.J. Berry as mayor of Albuquerque could help, she said. "It's a potential benefit to Republicans that the biggest metropolitan area in the state is run by a Republican." The key for Republicans, she said, is to keep the primary from getting nasty. "Don't let it get personal," Atkeson said, "Don't go down the path of the Pearce/Wilson race." She was referring to last year's bitter GOP U.S. Senate primary between Wilson and U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce. Pearce edged Wilson in the primary but went out to lose to Democrat Tom Udall in the general election.

Former state Republican Chairman Edward Lujan said Thursday, "My hope is that everyone one runs a very positive campaign, talking about the issues instead of negative campaigns." Asked which Republican candidate benefits most from Wilson not running, Lujan said, "I don't think it affects the race that much. It would have affected a lot if she was running. She would have been the obvious front-runner." Albuquerque businessman and Republican blogger Mario Burgos said Thursday that he's one of those who had been waiting for Wilson's decision before he agreed to support any gubernatorial candidate. He had served on Wilson's finance committee in previous races.

"It's a three-way race," Burgos said, naming Weh, Turner and Martinez. That's based largely on fundraising, he said.

Burgos said Weh has the best chance of getting support from Wilson's financial backers.

"I think Allen's the front-runner now, but it's always tough being the early front-runner," he said, because the other candidates take more shots at the front-runner.

Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037 or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com. Read his political blog at roundhouseroundup.com.

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Copyright (c) 2009, The Santa Fe New Mexican Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

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