The query of this post is simple: Will Desktop 3D Printers ever reach a mass market?

To begin with, let us consider the state of the broader 3D printing market. There are currently three publicly traded companies that produce 3D Printers: Stratasys (News - Alert) (SSYS), 3D Systems (DDD) and ExOne (XONE). Each of them has grown considerably since going public in 2008, 2011, and 2013 respectively. And while it is a bit reductive to claim that a company going public means it is financially sound (see Facebook (News - Alert) Inc.), growing stock prices are still a strong sign that people believe in this industry and market.

In terms of sustainability, it is likely that there will always be a place for these companies in their original niche: rapid prototyping. Entrepreneurs, designers and multinational corporations all rely on this technology to develop new products quickly and efficiently. This has been the case for decades already, and there is no reason to doubt that these groups will continue to rely on rapid-prototyping and additive manufacturing.

With all that being said, however, let us now turn to the less stable area of desktop 3D printers.

3D desktop printers (or desktop printers, for the sake of brevity) certainly have their place at the side of inventors and others who are witling away at custom designs. This is because these printers can provide instant access to new models or prototypes without the need, cost or delay of 3D printing services. For desktop printers to become a viable, mass-market commodity, however, this initial customer base is simply too small.

Mass-market products follow a pretty simple business model: sell as many as possible. Companies accomplish this in a number of different ways, from selling their products at a low price (Walmart) to leveraging sexy designs and cutting edge tech (Apple (News - Alert)). So, in theory, desktop printers could take a number of different routes to become a mass-market commodity – some of which we have already seen.

One method is to provide a low price. One of the best places to observe this method is on Kickstarter and other crowd-sourcing platforms, which have been and remain potent breeding grounds for new, affordable 3D Printers. For example, Kickstarter alone is the birthplace of the Form1, the Buccaneer, and over a dozen other desktop printers. People gravitate towards these printers as a way to help them become a reality, and in turn to get their own 3D desktop printers at a cheaper price than anywhere else. As proof of this concept, nearly 97 percent of Pirate 3D’s backers for the Buccaneer chose a pledge amount that rewarded them with their own Buccaneer (beginning at $297).

Another method is to rely on a business’ finances to, essentially, throw money at the product until it is successful. I refer to this as the Microsoft (News - Alert) method (crass though it may be to do so), since it can and will back its products up for as long as it takes the public to accept them (Windows Vista anyone?). A potential example of this with desktop printers is the recent merger of Stratasys and MakerBot – a merger based upon the idea that more resources for MakerBot will eventually turn into more sales.

A third method (and the last that I will go into here) is to bring out a product with the hopes of creating a market around it. You see this in just about every product Apple has come out with in the 21st century, in particular with the i-line of products. It is this method, I would argue, that every desktop printer currently on the market is at least partially reliant upon – especially as there is yet to exist a sizable market for such products.

As Microsoft’s Shanen Boetcher (general manager of Microsoft’s Startup Business Group) recently discussed with Rakesh Sharma over at Forbes, there are only around 200,000 3D printers in use right now, with projections stating that the 3D printing market will only reach the $3 billion mark in 2016. To put that number into perspective, recently Microsoft’s shares fell $34 billion – a single-company fluctuation amounting to a value 3,100 percent greater than the projections mentioned above.

So what does the future hold for desktop printers? The truth is that we are still at the very beginning stages of the 3D desktop printer, and as of yet there is no true market for the product. While hundreds of companies might be working with / within the realm of 3D desktop printers (for example: Staples’ (News - Alert) recent introduction of the Cube in retail stores), results so far are little more than speculation. These printers may come to do well one day, but they have a number of different obstacles to overcome in the meantime, including:

• Utility (though Windows 8.1 is trying to help with that);
• Limited Functionality;
• Ease of Use;
• Lack of CAD Experience;
• Marketplace for High-Quality Models (a la the iTunes Store).

Perhaps the most important thing the industry can do, however, is to determine what the purpose of 3D desktop printers is. Are they tools for learning and rapid prototyping, or are they simply an expensive form of entertainment? Because if anyone wants to see a “factory on every desktop” one day, then the manufacturers and sellers of 3D desktop printers need to determine whether or not their current marketing strategies are viable for the long-term. Otherwise, it is only a matter of time before the hype – and the printers themselves – fade into obscurity.