While the idea of local media may be somewhat on the decline amid advertising vectors like the Internet, the newest report from BIA / Kelsey suggests local media advertising may not be on the way out after all, but rather on an upward trend over the next few years.
The report projects that revenue gained from local media advertising is likely to go from their 2012 totals of $132.5 billion, to a hefty $148.8 billion in 2017.
That wasn't the end of the news from the BIA / Kelsey report, though. Suggesting that local media revenue would gain at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3 percent is a pretty big deal by itself, but the distribution is also noteworthy. National brands accounted for just under an even third – 32.1 percent, valued at around $42.5 billion – of the total local media advertising spend for 2012.
But by 2017, that number was expected to jump to close to $51 billion.
Digital media, meanwhile, is also on a bit of an uptick, set to make a climb of better than 10 percent over the next five years, going from 17.4 percent of the local media revenue share in 2012 to an expected 27.6 percent in 2017.
A variety of formats and applications are driving the jump in local media ad buys, as explained by BIA / Kelsey vice president and chief economist Mark Fratrik, who said, "Local media has become a key channel, not only for local small businesses, but for regional businesses, national franchises and national brands targeting locally. This is clearly seen in our tracking of market shifts in mobile, social, search, promotions, coupons and deals, native ads and sales transformation."
However, the news isn't all good, as the traditional local media revenue is expected to see a dropoff in 2012 numbers, but only a slight drop. The numbers are expected to drop from $109.4 billion in 2012 – numbers bolstered somewhat by the spending of an election year – to $107.6 billion in 2017, for a CAGR of -0.3 percent.
But taking out the election spending shows a traditional local media that's surprisingly stable – far from terrible news.
BIA / Kelsey will be making a presentation on its results at the LEADING IN LOCAL: The National Impact conference, which is set to run through this Wednesday in Boston. The conference is geared toward an examination of how national brands making more of a push into local media are having an impact on that same local media.
This all makes quite a bit of sense. For many people, local media sources – newspapers, radio and the like – is one of the first places many turn for local news. This is at least something of the story behind how local newspapers are still operating. With substantial numbers of people turning toward certain media outlets, that improves the overall odds that advertising in those venues will be noticed, and thus, more likely to be acted upon.
Advertisers commonly go where the people are, especially those people that advertisers would like to see buying their products, so seeing increased buying in local media makes sense in light of that.
Still, for local media outlets, the news of better spending to come will likely be well-received. No doubt many such outlets are hoping that the BIA / Kelsey numbers come to pass as projected, or even a bit better.
Edited by Braden Becker