Is the Tablet PC going to revive the PC market? I believe it
will. This is actually the "Third Coming" of tablets, a
technology that was slated to take off about a decade ago but
quickly lost steam when it was realized that the computing
horsepower wasn't there to power these devices in a form factor that
was functional and light-weight.
The Second Coming of course was vertical markets Tablets
slowly but surely made their way into the medical and some other
vertical spaces.
So here we are at the "Third Coming" of tablet-based
computing and this time it is different. Why? This time it's
successful. Why? That is exactly what we'll take a look at in this
article.
TABLET PCS ON THE RISE
Before I continue, let's look at the numbers. IDC claims Tablet
PC shipments will grow from 150,000 units in 2002 to 675,000 units
in 2003. This is a staggering growth rate and not just market
research hype. Toshiba has
doubled its tablet production rates and still can't keep up with
demand. Considering the miserable state of corporate expenditures,
the fear of war and gas prices that could make a Hummer owner go off
the deep end; tablet growth must be deemed staggering.
Truth is however, that there are two things to consider when
looking at these staggering growth rates. The first is that there is
a good deal of consumer interest in purchases of tablet computers
and secondly, in many cases, laptop purchases can be easily shifted
into the tablet category as many tablets can convert quickly into
notebook computers. So in effect, there is an incremental cost to
gain tablet functionality. This year in fact, Tablet PCs will
account for about five percent of the overall notebook market.
In order to give a complete picture, I think it is important to
realize that the biggest obstacle to tablet computing is actually
MIS departments who are generally maxed out and don't like to adopt
new technologies immediately. The rapid growth of the tablet market
flies in the face of logic and reason really. Perhaps I can explain
why You see, PDAs have made us comfortable with stylus-based
computing and as such, users themselves are driving tablet adoption
as they drive PDA adoption. Although tablet computers and PDAs are
vastly different creatures and from a performance standpoint, use
different operating systems, etc., there is a convergence of these
devices in our future. Expect to see smaller tablets and larger PDAs.
Gartner says that by 2010,
half of office workers will carry two or more wireless devices. You
have to wonder what these devices will be at that time. I expect
wearable computing to be a big market at that time so you can expect
some sort of integrated phone/watch/PDA with a high-resolution
display built into some sort of heads-up display. Take a look at a
company like MicroOptical
for ideas on how something like this will work and look.
BENEFITS OVER THE PDA
With the above data in mind, it is safe to say in my view that
within five years, 50 percent of all notebook sales will be Tablet
PCs. Why? The tablet computer is a wonderful input device, it really
is. Before I started using a PDA, I would burn through paper
notebooks like a dotcom burned through cash. Once I went digital
though, there was no turning back. The benefits of this transition
are immense and not just because my work area is neater (perhaps
that's a stretch. At least it's virtually Post-it free) I can now
access every important meeting I have ever had with simple text
searches.
The PDA, for all its strengths, is weak in two areas: Small
screen size and handwriting recognition. I usually use a keyboard to
input text but sometimes I can't use it because of lack of table
space or the distraction that the keyboard causes in certain
meetings. Sometimes I just forget the keyboard and am forced to
input text by hand. I am told that I am pretty good at inputting
text on a PDA but text input on such a small device is painful as we
all know.
Obviously workforce productivity would rocket ahead if meeting
notes and actionable items were immediately digitized. The reason
they aren't in my view is that PDAs are not the ideal devices to
input text with. Tablets are much better at the whole text input
process since they support Digital
Ink, making them much more like regular paper notebooks. We can
expect some PDAs to grow in size and some tablets to shrink in size.
The distinction between these camps will blur over time. This is all
but inevitable. Take a look at my recent article on Comdex which references the Samsungs
Nexio S160 for an idea of what I mean.
The Tablet PC market is new and we will likely see many
applications emerge that really make this device a must-have. With
or without new applications however, the growth of tablet computers
in meetings and presentations is going to be incredible in my view.
From a productivity standpoint, there is so much to be gained by
digitizing the daily transactions that are now lost in too many
corporate meetings. The cost of tablets is relatively dirt-cheap and
we will likely see tablets becoming trendy in the upcoming years,
making the slope of their adoption curve ever higher. Will Tablet
PCs revive the PC market? You bet!
Rich Tehrani is TMC's president. He welcomes your comments at rtehrani@tmcnet.com. |
