The State of 4G

By Paula Bernier (News - Alert)

Fourth-generation wireless technology is one of the hottest areas of public networking – if not the hottest – today. But it's early days for both LTE and WiMAX (News - Alert), and the transition to at least the first of the two is expected to be on a gradual and as-needed basis.

As discussed in the September/October 2009 NGN magazine article "The Race to 4G," while LTE has garnered a lot of the attention because big wireless operators like AT&T and Verizon (News - Alert) (and now MetroPCS) have committed to it, WiMAX technology actually is deployed commercially today. However, LTE builds are expected to commence this year, and most folks seem to believe this will be the more lasting and widespread technology.

For its part, Verizon has stated plans for early LTE (News - Alert) deployments this year, with mass market availability in 2011 and beyond. AT&T, which last month followed in Verizon's footsteps by naming Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson (News - Alert) as its LTE equipment suppliers, seems to have a similar timeframe. It expects to do LTE trials later this year and early commercial deployments starting in 2011 – to coincide with widespread availability of equipment and LTE-compatible end user devices.

And while hopes are high for LTE, these carriers' (particularly AT&T's) interest in leveraging their 3G networks to whatever extent possible into the future, as well as spectrum issues and other concerns, will make this technology true to its name: long-term evolution.

Allen Nogee, In-Stat (News - Alert) analyst, emphasized that fact in pointing out what he sees as some "glaring issues" around 4G.

"These include lack of spectrum, signal-to-noise ratio, and non-established patent and royalty pool," he says. "It's clear that the shift toward 4G LTE will be gradual and protracted."

Despite its well-known network capacity issues, AT&T seems just fine with that, as the company apparently will continue investing in 3G gear. Indeed, the carrier's new 4G supplier agreements stipulate that the 3G equipment delivered by Alcatel-Lucent (News - Alert) and Ericsson to AT&T starting this year must be software-convertible to LTE, so the company doesn't have to rip out hardware when it needs to make the long-term evolution.

But while the move to LTE is expected to be gradual, at least one very large supplier seems convinced this is the way
to go.

According to reports, Alcatel-Lucent's wireless Chief Operating Officer Patrick Plas recently indicated his company is not putting a lot of effort into WiMAX any longer, but instead is favoring its LTE efforts. That may not be a surprise, but it is somewhat notable in light of the fact that Infonetics (News - Alert) Research recently gave the vendor high marks for its WiMAX work.

"Mobile WiMAX service providers we surveyed recently gave highest ratings to Alvarion (News - Alert), Alcatel-Lucent and Motorola based on various criteria, such as WiMAX technology, pricing and service and support, although no one vendor was rated strong across the board," says Richard Webb, directing analyst for WiMAX, microwave, and mobile devices at Infonetics Research. "Cisco and Huawei (News - Alert) also have good ratings, suggesting they are capable of closing ground on the top three. As the WiMAX market consolidates to a remaining handful of vendors and becomes more competitive, the perception of different aspects of the business will come under increasing scrutiny."

Some of these suppliers of gear for WiMAX, which has seen the most uptake abroad, have been anxiously awaiting spectrum auctions in India to commence. But their hopes for a quick turnaround on that were recently dashed when the auctions were delayed. Expectations are now that auctions for WiMAX spectrum in India will commence next month.

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