Triple Play

Now that is has been 6 months since the launch of this triple play channel, it is time to take a look around at the triple play landscape and assess what we see. On one hand, we see every major service provider announcing plans and making steady progress at deploying a triple play service of some kind. On the other hand, we get that nagging feeling that no one really knows what they are doing and what the competitive landscape will look like in the long term.

Why is that? Well, one possible reason is that so little was done for so long, that now many of the major service providers are trying to play catch-up. Now that the cable companies are starting to attract decent voice service market share (did you know Cox Communications is the number one telephony service provider in Omaha, Nebraska?), rural and independent telcos are getting a head-start with DSL-based telco TV offerings, alternative providers like Vonage are building on their VoIP telephony subscriber base with plans for video calling, and even MUNICIPALITIES are showing guts and leadership by deploying free or low-cost offerings over a mix of Fiber and Wireless (despite getting sued by the Big Boys and harassed by state legislatures), FINALLY we see some major activity by the Tier 1 service providers that goes beyond lab trials and pilot deployments.

But before we sound too harsh, we need to remember that the incumbents have had the LUXURY to be cautious all these years, as they have used their pseudo-monopolies to hold on to their captive base of subscribers. Now that all this is changed, there is a mad rush to deploy and market triple play services. But what is the best way to deploy triple play without making the business and technical mistakes that will haunt board rooms for years? How do you deploy triple play in such a way that is attractive and gets good uptake by subscribers right now AND is future-proof for new architectures and service platforms in the future (e.g., IMS, SDPs, WiMAX). After all, no one wants to jump into the pool to find the water boiling, beginning to freeze, or worse, an empty mirage.

In an attempt to answer these questions, Netcentrex and the IPlay3 Consortium partners-- AllPlay3-- are hosting a two-city event in mid-September dubbed the Triple Play Symposium. We are inviting senior executives and technologists from all the major service providers (and Tier 2s deploying triple play) to meet in a collegial environment to hear and discuss the major business and technical trade-offs of triple play deployments. We will have a keynote from Paolo Tavazzani, head of voice and advanced services for FastWeb, to hear about how they started from scratch to become one of the largest triple play deployments in the world, with over 650,000 subscribers of a combined voice-video-data service over fiber and DSL. We will also have presentations by industry analyst Rick Thompson from HeavyReading and triple play strategies presented by Intel, Netcentrex, Envivio, and Allied Telesyn. There will be a demonstration of an example triple play platform, and oh, did I mention the wine tasting? This will be a top-notch event in every way, and for those lucky enough to be there, a major jump-start or refresh to your triple play deployment strategies. The links to register for the New York and San Jose venues are here:

New York

San Jose

To give you a head-start on your preparation for this event, I leave you with what the title of this article promisedthe Top Ten Triple Play Strategic Questions to ponder. They are a mix of both business and technical considerations. Hopefully, we can answer them with you in September.

1) Why am I doing this?
Even in mid-course as you are digging up streets and knocking on doors, it helps to remind yourselves of the financial business case for triple play. Is it just a reaction to the competition, or is this part of a larger trend that will fundamentally change your companys business model?

2) Who will buy triple play?
Not everyone will want what you have to offer, so it is important to understand your target market and how it varies across different demographics and geographies. Remember that your entrenched competition may already have gotten to your target customer base and set their triple play expectations for them.

3&4) What services do they want and how do they want them?
Triple play is already a misnomer, because it is way more than just voice, video, and data over a single connection from a single provider with one bill. That is what we call 1+1+1. True triple play takes advantage of the common IP pipe to provide an integrated experience (for example, caller ID on your TV screen, checking voice-mail from your TV during commercial, etc.) and also becomes a platform for a whole host of new services (gaming, e-medicine, security monitoring, telematics, e-commerce, etc.).

5) What access technology is best and does it really matter?
There are trade-offs and it largely matters only if you are tied to the limits of your existing network rather than deploying new greenfield fiber or wireless networks. For example, if you have digital cable, why wouldnt you start there? Take a look at the triple play channel polllooks close so far, but Telcos (DSL) look to be in the lead (they better get MPEG-4 set-top boxes if they want more than one channel of IP-TV or if they want to do IP-VoD).

6) How important is consumer behavior?
This could be the biggest strategic question to answer and will require all types of service providers to get outside of their comfort zones. All the studies show that how you set-up a service and make it usable to consumers makes all the difference between lets say 5% service adoption and 60%. For example, it is important to remember that the PC is still largely an INDIVIDUAL interface (but allows more sophisticated controls because of the attached mouse and keyboard) while the TV is the de facto FAMILY interface (but can only handle simple commands because of the limits of the remote controle.g. dialing from a caller ID list is OK-- but making folks punch in numbers from a remote control to make a call is a bad idea). Mixing the purpose and use of these two distinct interfaces or assuming clean interchangeability between them will doom your triple play service from the start.

7) Should I worry about wireless?
So I will give you the answer to that question- YES. This means looking ahead at how consumers might use WiFi in their homes and making reasonable estimates as to how future broadband wireless services like WiMAX and 3G-like services might affect your business case. Also look at dual-use appliances to see how voice and video services might roam between local and public networks. But dont let this worry paralyze you from acting nowubiquitous wireless services capable of delivering the triple play are a long way off and will require a huge investment of capital and time to define and refine standards.

8) How important is marketing?
OK, another easy one- VERY IMPORTANT. One could argue that the only reason no one wanted true triple play service five years ago is that no one was marketing them to consumers. Look at Vonage and all they have spent on marketing (will they ever get this money back?). The point is that folks need to feel comfortable with new technology, and the only way to do that is through marketing.

9) How important is bundling versus a la carte services?
The verdict is still out on this one and probably has a lot to do with your particular target market, but I lean towards bundling. It was a lesson that FastWeb learned early. If you offer your services piecemeal, customers fall back on what they know such as low-cost telephony. But if you force them into a well-priced and packaged triple play offering, they will sign up and then wonder how they ever lived without it.

10) Who will win the triple play wars?
Will it be the telcos, cable companies, wireless, Greenfield FTTH deployments? The answer has more to do with which companies-- rather than which group-- are best at answering the 9 questions above, listening to their customers as the market evolves, and being FLEXIBLE enough to change their service line up, indeed their entire business model, to adapt to changes in the market. That is really the whole point. Triple play requires consumers to make changes in how they act at home and at work and when on the road, so they will come to expect the same flexibility of the service providers who market these new services to them.

See you in New York or San Jose!

E-mail me feedback or questions about the Triple Play Symposium: brian.mahony@netcentrex.net.