Consumer fixed telephony will all but disappear in the next decade, IBM (News - Alert) researchers now predict. Consumer usage of “fixed voice telephony” over fixed landlines will decrease by 95 percent over the next five to 10 years.

 

At the same time, consumer usage of mobile and wireless broadband will increase by 98 percent over the next five to 10 years as well.

 

Most observers likely are more comfortable with the former forecast, compared to the latter - since most observers would likely opt for the 10-year timeframe rather than five years.

 

You might think the IBM forecast is driven by a move to VoIP, but that seems less the case than a predicted shift in the way people communicate.

 

'The ways in which people communicate are shifting from point-to-point and two-way conversations, to many-to-many, collaborative communications,' IBM says. Think of a world where people communicate mostly indirectly, using social mechanisms such as Twitter, Facebook (News - Alert) and blogs, and you'll get the idea.

 

IBM might be wrong, of course. But those views are in line with scenarios IBM suggests are most likely over the next five years.

 

Looking at all voice revenues, whether provided by a fixed PSTN line, VoIP or even mobile voice, IBM sees the percentage of total developed world telco revenue declining from 75 percent, where voice revenues sit today, to a high of 69 percent in the least-disruptive scenario to just 39 percent in the most-disruptive scenario.

 

At the same time, IBM believes the most-likely developed world scenarios have the percentage of broadband access revenue to climb from a low of 30 percent of total up to perhaps 60 percent of total revenue in just five years.

 

Service providers in emerging markets have a bit more running room, as IBM suggests voice revenues will constitute no less than 63 percent, and as much as 85 percent of service provider revenues by 2015.

 

There are some perhaps-obvious implications. First, the drive to replace voice revenues with broadband revenues might determine how healthy developed-world service providers will be over the next five to 10 years.

 

Service providers might find they are compelled to focus a greater percentage of their energies on business customers and business partners than consumers. That isn't to say the number of business customers will grow so fast they offer a substitute market for lost consumer customers, but more that the number of potential business customers will grow as content and applicaiton providers can be induced to become telco partners.

 

The other blindingly-obvious implication is that wireless services will be essential, in large part because consumer services increasingly look to be moving to any 'any device' mode. Respondents overwhelmingly suggested that 'ubiquity' will be key in the next decade.

 

About 70 percent of respondents believe access to content with any device - PC, TV, phone - from any provider will prevail.

 

IBM surveyed over 8,000 consumers and 60 senior executives from more than 40 communication service providers globally to examine how the industry should evolve in the next five years in the wake of increased competition in the service provider community.