It’s possible that flash memory will make traditional disk storage nearly obsolete within 10 years, at least according to a new forecast from Wikibon. The organization, a research and advisory project comprised of high-level technology practitioners, has released a new report showing the amount of flash memory shipped in 2026 will be 1,000 times greater than disk storage, building out data centers and hyperscale cloud applications and services.
The new “Enterprise Flash vs. HDD Projections” report compares flash and HDD storage using a number of variables, beginning in 2012. Just four years ago, the amount of flash memory shipped was 1,000 times less than disk storage and yet the two types of memory are set to become equal by 2018. Flash memory will then gain prominence, and not just in the data center. Flash is expected to dominate the area of hyperscale cloud services, which are of course growing at a significant rate.
"The rapidly lowering cost and higher performance of flash will result in a rapid adoption of flash to replace magnetic drives,” said David Floyer, analyst and CTO of Wikibon, in the report. “Flash together with systems of intelligence will enable the integration of big-data analysis into operational systems, and automate many decisions."
Flash memory has a number of practical advantages like speed and a steadily declining cost per terabyte. But its true value lies in its ability to offer multiple logical views of the same data, a major benefit for processing and analyzing huge amounts of big data. When compounded with the trend of major vendors like SanDisk (News - Alert), Samsung and Intel churning out smaller and faster 3D NAND flash, the future for flash looks pretty promising.
In fact, Intel just announced this week that its collaboration with Micron on 3D Xpoint non-volatile memory technology is set to be available next year in the Optane line of SSDs. The technology essentially transcends NAND flash with purportedly massive density and endurance.
According to Wikibon, HDD storage will still have a place within the new hyperscale, hybrid cloud world and will essentially be the go-to storage for deep archiving. "Like all great technologies, magnetic storage in general, and the magnetic disk drive in particular, has a long ride into the sunset,” said Floyer. “Magnetics are a cheaper way of holding WORN data -- write once, read never."
Edited by Rory J. Thompson