Call me sentimental, but while the PBX deathwatch inspires giddiness and even a twisted
delight in some, it seems to me a somber affair. I find myself anticipating the final day
ahead, the final dark day, when I'll have no choice but to write the PBX's obituary. Could
I find the words that would do justice to the PBX, that would offer some solace to other
mourners - interconnects, say, sorrowful souls who had, perhaps, grown all too accustomed
to pushing boxes? And I wonder, would my reminiscences wring a wry smile from those who
never like technological artifacts better than when they finally become museum pieces?
Would the PBX, in the end, appeal the sort of people who make free with their compassion,
but only after it is already too late?
Perhaps I take my hand wringing to an extreme. In any case, I realize that by now the
sensitive reader will have gathered why it is I torture myself so. I am, to be completely
forthright, more than a little wracked by guilt. Now, I didn't kill the PBX, but I did
contribute to its demise. I am, after all, the publisher of CTI magazine, which not only
chronicles but also perpetuates the advance of CTI (computer-telephony integration)
technology. And it is CTI technology that is bringing an end to the PBX as we know it.
Indeed, CTI has utterly and irrevocably changed the business communications model, leaving
no room for the PBX, ushering in its place a variety of next-generation devices.
IS IT TRUE THAT RUST NEVER SLEEPS?
Known affectionately as "big iron," the traditional PBX is destined for the
junkyard. Of course, that statement may seem too strong to some readers, but I think it a
plain statement of fact. Indeed, I'm prepared to withstand wave after wave of e-mail
messages challenging my point of view. (Outraged readers, do your worst!)
How can I be so confident? I base my judgment not only on my own hunches, but also on
what I observe all around me. I see a proliferation of PBX alternatives. I see the
alternatives gaining ground on the traditional PBX, forcing PBX manufacturers to augment
or enhance their devices. I see the leading vendors in data communications taking a
serious interest in PBX alternatives. And, last but not least, I see the leading telephony
vendors demonstrating their willingness to participate in (and not just react to) the
emerging field of voice/data convergence.
Will the PBX disappear overnight? Not likely. Just as the PC revolution didn't kill the
mainframe market overnight, the next generation of PBX replacements will be hybrid devices
integrating the best features of telephone and computer systems. Just as the mainframe
morphed into a computer system comprised of the best mainframe and PC features, expect the
PBX to do the same.
THE PBX CEDES GROUND TO OTHER DEVICES
This transition started innocuously enough, in the early 80s. Back then, CTI was just
getting started, acting as a link between the PBX and the PC server. A lot has happened in
CTI since then, however. Now, CTI is considerably broader, and is represented by a variety
of applications, devices, and network architectures. (Incidentally, we've been predicting
the marginalization of the PBX for some time. In fact, in our January 1998 issue,
we ran a piece on just this topic by Jim Burton.)
The PC-Based PBX
CTI is responsible for stuffing an entire PBX into a PC, yielding more flexibility and
typically a dramatically improved GUI interface to boot. We refer to this CTI offshoot as
a PC-PBX.
PC-PBX vendors include companies such as AltiGen, Picazo, and Artisoft
Comdial ,one of the leading mid-range PBX
vendors, has also staked a claim in the next-generation PBX market by introducing a
PC-based PBX that is substantially compatible with its standalone traditional PBX.
The Voice/Data Switch
Another group of vendors is pursuing a different course. These vendors decided that the
PBX of the future would be IP telephony enabled. They also chose to base their version of
the PBX on standard server-based components and to situate it on the LAN. Thus the
voice/data switch was born. Please see our February 1999 issue
featured a survey of 14 of the leading edge voice/data switches.
The IP-Enabled PBX
Today's PBX has already changed substantially in the last few years. Lucent and Nortel
Networks have PBXs with IP telephony cards that allow these traditional PBXs to
transmit IP telephony as if they were voice/data switches.
A TELLING SPATE OF ACQUISITIONS
The voice/data convergence market is in tremendous flux. Indeed, tracking this market is
difficult because it seems to evolve daily, with announcements of one acquisition after
another.
One of the major industry acquisitions happened when Cisco
purchased Selsius Systems, one of the leading
voice/data switch vendors. More recently, 3Com
purchased voice/data switch vendor NBX and Ericsson purchased TouchWave . Perhaps by the time you read this column,
another acquisition, or two or three, will have taken place. There is no stopping this
market.
But data networking companies are not alone in demonstrating tremendous interest in
voice/data switches. Rumor has it that Cisco, in its acquisition of Selsius, outbid an
offer by Nortel Networks by approximately 100 percent! Although Nortel was outbid in this
instance, the company is clearly serious about next-generation voice/data communications.
Nortel did, after all, acquire Bay Networks.
I expect that Nortel Networks will join the voice/data switch market any day now.
Another telephony mainstay, Lucent, has also demonstrated its commitment to convergence.
For example, Lucent has released its IP Exchange System, which I wrote about in the December 1998 issue of
Internet Telephony magazine.
YET ANOTHER CHALLENGE TO THE PBX'S PRIMACY
As if I hadn't already gathered enough examples of how the PBX is being relegated to the
sidelines of business communications, I recently received word of another instance of
voice/data convergence. This new development gives my arguments even greater force.
I received a call from Stefan Karapetkov of Siemens
Business Communications Stefan had read my recent column on voice/data switches
in the February 1999
issue of CTI , and he responded enthusiastically, letting me know that Siemens had
also thrown its hat into the voice/data switch ring.
Siemens introduced the HiNet RC 3000. With Siemens' introduction of this voice/data
switch, it seems as though there is not a soul alive that doesn't see voice/data switches
or PC-PBXs as the future of the PBX. With support from Lucent, Nortel Networks, Cisco,
3Com, Ericsson, and Siemens, do we need anyone else to tell us something revolutionary is
taking place in telecommunications?
What Is The HiNet RC 3000?
The Siemens voice/data switch is a client-server-based switch that operates in a switched
Ethernet LAN environment or intranet. Similar to the offerings from other vendors, the
HiNet RC 3000 offers a browser administration interface, greatly simplifying remote
management. The HiNet RC 3000 also provides H.323 compatibility and T.128 application
sharing so you can easily work with products such as NetMeeting. JTAPI will be the
language of choice for developers.
The server itself is composed of a 300-MHz Pentium II, Windows NT, Microsoft Access,
and Microsoft SQL V6.5. The clients need to a Pentium 90 at the least (a Pentium 166 is
recommended). Other requirements include a full-duplex sound card and a microphone,
headset, and handset.
How Siemens Characterizes The RC 3000's Place In The Market
Stefan was nice enough to send me many fascinating internal documents on how Siemens views
the future of multimedia communications and IP telephony. I have always had tremendous
respect for the surveys that Siemens has put together and have taken them quite seriously.
For example, with the help of focus groups, Siemens has devoted considerable effort toward
understanding the telecom and call center markets. Many of the company's predictions in
the late '80s and '90s have been right on the mark. So, we may do well to pay attention to
the company's stance on the following issues:
The market potential for the RC 3000 and IP telephony: According to Siemens,
IP telephony between corporate locations will prove popular because it promises rapid cost
savings. Also: multimedia applications in the corporation with the addition of enhanced
services
The first potential applications for the RC 3000: Siemens expects that the RC
3000 will make inroads among help desks and call centers that require voice, data, and
information integration.
The voice/data switch as a PBX replacement: Siemens is very careful to
position the PBX (in their case, the Hicom) as evolving into a communications server
similar to a voice/data switch. It seems that on this point Siemens expresses views very
much like those expressed by all the other PBX manufacturers. In addition, it seems that
the Siemens voice/data switch, like other voice/data switches, will be much less expensive
than traditional PBXs.
The possibility that the RC 3000 has arrived too late: We couldn't resist
asking Siemens about this issue, since it occurred to us that the RC 3000 might be unable
to compete with the voice/data switch developed by Selsius, and acquired by Cisco. It
seemed to us that Cisco voice/data switch already had a very large head start, and that
the RC 3000 might have difficulty catching up.
As you might expect, Siemens vigorously rejected these concerns. In fact, they
discussed the issue so thoroughly that this column could scarcely include all of the
company's arguments. But, to summarize, Siemens' point of view is something like this:
Siemens has the benefit of experience, since Siemens has been in the telephone market for
over 150 years, whereas Cisco has been in the market since October 1998. Cisco has no
field service capability of its own. Instead, it relies on VARs and service partners (HP
and Unisys).
Siemens also cites the importance of customer confidence. The company asks whether
newcomers such as Cisco are willing to make the sort of service commitments that Siemens
does on its PBXs (dial in within one hour, two-hour on-site response on
"majors").
Siemens raises other issues: Is the Selsius system capable of self-diagnostics and
opening its own trouble-tickets? Does the Selsius product offer features such as emergency
bypass lines, power redundancy, processor redundancy, etc.? Is Cisco really ready to be
responsible for keeping company's telephone system up and running 24x7?
I am sure other PBX vendors would react to our question in a similar way. Moreover, I
take the Siemens response as just another indication that we can expect the battle between
datacom and telecom companies to get even more heated. I must agree that telecom does pose
some unique challenges, and that it may take the datacom companies some time to come to
grips with these challenges. For example, it will take time for datacom companies to
digest telecom-oriented companies they've acquired. Datacom companies need to absorb not
only telecom technology and expertise but also the intricate distribution models so
prevalent in telecom.
CONCLUSION
At this point, you might still be wondering whether I really think the PBX is dead. I do.
I must add, however, that I am speaking of the traditional PBX. It is still possible for
PBX companies to evolve, and to provide network devices that demonstrate the sort of
innovation we see with PC-PBXs and voice/data switches.
As a matter of fact, there are already encouraging signs. Providers of traditional PBXs
are enhancing their "big iron" switches, and rolling out voice/data switches of
their own. We can expect to see large PBX manufacturers continue their two-pronged
strategy of voice/data switches on the low end, and PBXs that incorporate IP telephony
interfaces on the high end.
Datacom companies will likely focus exclusively on voice/data switches that can be
connected together in a way similar to that used to connect network hubs. I expect that
PBXs of the future will resemble network hubs or routers and will have analog and IP
telephony interfaces. Indeed, the voice/data switches will in this respect resemble hubs
that have 10BaseT and coax connections.
Expect to see similarities developing on other fronts, too. Once distinct categories -
PBXs, PC-PBXs, voice/data switches, and IP-enabled PBXs - will begin to merge. Almost all
PC-PBX vendors have announced IP telephony interfaces into their switches. (Are you
surprised?) So it seems that no matter what choice you make, the most important
differentiator that a company can have over another is its commitment to technology and an
open architecture that will allow seamless product upgrades regardless of how the telecom
industry evolves.
Rich Tehrani welcomes your feedback at rtehrani@tmcnet.com.
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