February 2000

BY MARC ROBINS

One of the advantages of being late to the prognostication game is that before you stick your neck out on the chopping block, you have the luxury of reading what everyone else thinks is the hottest thing since tin cans and string. (Hey, I never said I was Nostradamus.) But seriously dear readers, for this --my very first Communications Solutions-- column I thought it made sense to hit upon some of the leading trends, technologies, and otherwise "hot stuff" in the communications industry-- stuff I believe will consume a sizeable amount of our mindshare in the months and few years ahead. Not coincidentally, all of these technologies will enjoy coverage in the pages of this magazine, as we do our best to stay on the forefront of change and provide you with the information you need to stay ahead of the curve.

RIDE THE WAVE
During a recent Lucent Technologies media event, a comment was made on the podium that blew my mind: "In the next century, we will no longer think of bandwidth in terms of bits and bytes. We will think of it in terms of wavelengths."

Optical networking is old news in terms of the network core; we’ve had fiber growing in the PSTN’s long-distance backbone for years, and the Internet’s backbone is well on its way to becoming an ultra-high capacity optical network. What’s new is that fiber is slowly but surely starting to reach all the way to the your desktop and living room. Constant improvements in capacity (currently more than 10 Gbps and 1,022 wavelengths on a single fiber), and exciting new products, like Lucent’s microscopically-mirrored WaveStar LamdaRouter, and OpticAir Free Space optics, will help pave the way for a slew of reasonably-priced, customer premises-based optical gear. Coming fast down the pike are wavelengths to the home and office, standard optical interfaces on communications servers, and 10 Gbps LANs.

WIRELESS WONDERLUST
The litany of wireless breakthroughs is simply breathtaking, and includes wireless IP, wireless local loop, 3G wireless, wireless LANs, WAP, and Bluetooth. While Japan and Europe are fast tracking their way to new, broadband 3G data services, the United States isn’t really that far behind (blame it on our laissez-faire style of government).

In the next few years, we will see wireless data truly come of age: Pervasive and persistent mobile network access will be the norm, and we will enjoy enormous boosts of productivity and efficiency — not to mention unbelievably cool applications. A hint of what’s to come is already here: the VisualPhone, made by Kyocera in Japan, transmits color video images at about two frames per second. It won’t put your new DVD player to shame, but it is enough for a quick and dirty video conference on the fly.

BROADBAND BONANZA
xDSL and cable modems will continue to propagate. We don’t have to think too hard on that one. What’s important is what will follow. The next few years will witness an explosion of voice, data, and video applications over some type of broadband pipe (or wireless connection). The old automatic decision to "get a T1" for voice services won’t be a given anymore; voice over DSL and cable will become viable alternatives. Full-screen, 30 frames-per-second video conferencing will also be accessible to the average office Jane or Joe. One interesting musing: As laser printers (and later the Web) provided the means for anyone to become a publisher, broadband Internet connectivity and access (and the right application server) will allow anyone to become a broadcaster. Just think of it, one million channels and growing!

THERE’S MORE — LOTS MORE
Other trends and technologies we will continue to watch closely include speech recognition (say what?); PC-based communications servers (long live the PC); new gizmos freed from the confines of the PC model (death to the PC); Linux-based open source development (you must spend the IPO proceeds somehow); CRM (empowering e-commerce with customer service and support); and unified messaging (joining voice and data at the desktop in holy matrimony). The bottom line: whether you buy into my musings or not, one thing is for sure. We’re all in for a wild ride!